With India and the US having reached agreement on the 123 nuclear treaty, India’s negotiations to permit it to use nuclear energy will now shift to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in order to ratify the right for India to enter the civilian nuclear market. Members of the 45 strong group are generally behind the Indian position, with key players such as the US, Britain, Russia & France providing strong support. The NSG has previously worked to a concensus, and here the position of China will be key. There are three main areas that influence the Chinese position. First, China will expect the US to negotiate with them over the issue, India’s request alone will not suffice. China will be expecting the US to lift current embargos on high end, dual nuclear technologies. They will also seek American assurances that India’s nuclear status will not threaten China.

Secondly, China has been expressing concern that India’s strategic partnerships with the US, Japan and Australia in the arc of democracy are specifically directed against China within the region and is an attempt to undermine Chinese Communist rule as a ‘containment strategy’ for China. China here however needs to accept a greater transparency for the modernisation of it’s military, and its control of domestic media that do lead countries answerable to democratic opinion to distrust the PRC. China’s complex web of secrecy is an issue here.

Third are security concerns. China is a long time partner with Pakistan, with Pakistans nuclear programme fully endorsed and supported by the Chinese. Pakistan has consistently requested it be placed on an equal nuclear footing to India, and has signed an agreement with China to build it’s own nuclear energy plants. China may well ask that Pakistan be given the same status by the NSG before agreeing to support the Indian motion. They may also harden their status on the security council concerning sanctions against Iran. Conflicts arise here. India, despite not being a member of the NPT, has adhered to all NPT laws, and has not engaged in proliferation. The cases for Pakistan and Iran in comparison are far from secure.

China and India have a growing bilateral trade relationship, and that now includes joint military exercises. Indian requirements for nuclear energy will only help to develop this trade, and indeed across the region. It does not serve the interests of either country to limit the growing prosperity and development of the other. Nonetheless, serious negotiations are due to take place between the US, China, India and Pakistan, not to mention the keen interest shown by other NSG members before India will be free to ‘go nuclear’ and underpin it’s economic development through cheap energy supplies. China’s positioning over the issue will be a key factor in how this plays out.

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