While upbeat talks are being held this week in Beijing between the Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and the Chinese President Hu Jintao, concerning record trade figures between the two nations, the real key to the continuing development of this relationship is a resurgent Russia. Indeed, while bi-lateral talks between India and China will make the headlines, it’s really a triumvirate story that is developing � the new Trading bloc that will be made up of these three superpowers to counterbalance both the United States’ aggressive desire for oil inflicting global imbalances upon the world’s economy and the geopolitical and geographical expansion of Europe.

It’s a subject largely unreported and little understood in the media’s seeming unending fascination with China and the hullabaloo of an American election. Yet Russia is expected to join the WTO later this year, with just Saudi Arabia standing between them and a mandate to come aboard and fully participate in the global community. Doing so will further add strength to Russia’s already booming economy, yet with wary eyes on its borders with Europe, and strongly felt suspicions concerning the proposed American desire to place missile sites in Poland, Russia is more likely to align itself with India and China as the global balance of power settles down into a tri-polar power base of America, Europe and Asia.

That Russia, and indeed China and India should want to do so should come as no surprise. India enjoyed massive Soviet support in the period immediately following the British regime, as the newly independent country sought to maximize its large population and largely agricultural based society. Not for nothing, after Gandhi’s political heroics, is the Indian national flag still depicted with a spinning wheel � the obvious foil to the sickle taken up by both Russia and China as then Communist allies. Soviet might and collectivism laid the path for much of India’s desire to �modernize� after the British left, and State owned agricultural collectives, and an economy based upon this, remained the Indian society model up until very recently. China too, has long had friendship with Russia, and the two countries, after all, share one the longest land border in the world. The same goes for India � ties with the country and people go back thousands of years, to days when religious blessings were as important in more God fearing times; Indian Buddhism and culture has long had a profound impact on the Chinese.

Of course, it has not always been easy. Close neighbors can and do squabble, as China has with Russia and India, with three decades of frost between them only now starting to thaw.

But global warming is catching everyone by surprise with its speedy development, and the relationship warming between these three countries is set to follow much the same pattern. China-India trade is now at levels not expected for another two years, at close to US$40 billion. India-Russia trade currently stands at US$6.5 billion and is expected to surpass the US$10 billion targets, again set for 2010, by next year. While Sino-Russian trade is also on the increase, close to US$37 billion for 2007. The average growth rate of trade between the three nations has increased at a consistent level of 35% each year over the past five years; and all concerned view this as ‘just the start.’

Russia holds several cards in this triangular trade development. Firstly, it is energy rich, with two massive markets � China and India � literally on its doorstep. Secondly, under the strong leadership of a still relatively young Vladimir Putin, it is increasingly stable, as are both China and India, and holds key doorways open to the U.S. and Europe, still somewhat denied to India and China through issues of geography and political naivety.

Third, it has strong representation within many of the regions border countries, and in particular some of the most lucrative (Kazakhstan for example) and awkward (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan) that allow it clout with both China and India as they seek to preserve their new found growth and fend off Islamic extremists at their own borders. Russian intelligence is key in dealing with the instability within Asia’s Muslim nations. As the British ultimately found after their loss of Empire, Russia being the ruling masters of the ex-Soviet Union does still carry some distinct advantages when it comes to dealing with countries previously under management.

It also makes sense for the preservation of stability within the region. A Russian / Indian / China de facto trading bloc will ensure the smaller, yet essential countries within Asia such as Vietnam, remain strongly influenced by regional, and not global politics, keeping them out of the clutches of American and European interference, yet also, oddly from each other. Vietnam and Burma have long been wary of possible subjugation by China, and having India and Russia to hand helps maintain the status quo of independence, yet permits lucrative trading to and fro these massive markets.

The signs are already there. The three nations have upgraded their recent ongoing series of tri-lateral talks to �summit� status, with the most recent being in October last year, including discussions between the Heads of Military of all three nations held in Harbin.

So while this week’s talks will make the headlines between China and India, the real issue being played out is the development of a triumvirate between these two countries and Russia. Having an Asia strategy now means understanding the depth of ties and developments between Beijing, Delhi, and Moscow. Russia is now showing off its Asian face rather than it’s European one, for the first time in 150 years, with the strategic development of Asia now residing partially within the Kremlin as Moscow looks East to it’s long term allies, with the riches of energy yet without the burden of massive populations to carry, and ready made markets in China and India. The era of Superpowers is over. The era of “Superregions” has just begun, and Russia, China and India just booked the last place at a table with dining partners the U.S. and the EU.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 9:03 am and is filed under China, India, Government, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.