The Credit Crisis spills over to Asia
October 9th, 2008 - by Nazia Vasi
Emerging Asia faces weaker economic growth prospects in the coming year amid slowing demand and financial turmoil in Western economies, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
‘More weakness is expected ahead in response to slowing demand from advanced economies and growing strains in regional financial markets,’ the IMF said in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook report.
‘The main concern is that a buildup of stress in the global financial system and a sharper-than-anticipated global slowdown could further weigh on activity,’ it said.
Regional locomotives China and India will also experience slower growth on weaker exports, but should continue to be supported by solid private consumption, it said.
Growth in China is likely to come in at 9.7 percent this year, and 9.3 percent in 2009 — compared to 11.9 percent in 2007, the IMF said. India will grow 7.9 percent this year and 6.9 percent in 2009, off from 9.3 percent in 2007, Forbes said.
India and China will not be the only Asian countries to be affected by the downfall. As rising food and fuel prices have started to weigh on consumption, while declining profit margins and weakening demand have prompted firms to scale back their investment plans, domestic demand in Asian economies has softened.
The two biggest newly industrialized economies, South Korea and Taiwan, will see growth moderate, with South Korea’s economy expanding 4.1 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2009. Taiwan will see 3.8 percent growth in 2008 and 2.5 percent next year, Forbes added.
Across the region, current account balances have come under pressure from rising import bills for oil, food and other commodities and slowing export growth, the IMF said. Investment will also moderate on deteriorating export prospects, while consumption will ease because of high fuel and food prices, Forbes continued.
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