Does India Have Built In Resilience Over US Downturn Concerns?
March 26th, 2008 - by Chris Devonshire-EllisIndia’s Finance Minister lays down his reasoning India will escape a US recession, plus comments of Indian Government Corruption.
The full interview with Chris Devonshire-Ellis, Senior Partner, Dezan Shira & Associates in Delhi
Meeting with India’s Finance Minister, Mr. P. Chidambaram, is always a lesson in elocution and delivery. One year ago, when we last met him in our annual series of meetings with Indian Ministers in Delhi, he was shy, somewhat reserved, yet bullish. India was doing well, with growth rates at a consistent level of between 7-9% looking sustainable, and the Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, stating to us that as long as India could keep such growth rates, it could afford it’s massive redevelopment, infrastructure and rural expenditure needed to lift the country into a true democracy with all people able to share in it’s wealth. “As long as those rates are sustainable” both the PM and Mr. Chidambaram chorused, “India’s continued development is assumed”.
Just a year on, we are faced with a different set of issues that could impact upon the Indian, and quite possibly, other emerging market economies, especially that of China. The US sub-prime crisis has dried up liquidity and seen money vanish. The US dollar is approaching record lows. The price of gas has just exceeded USD100 a barrel, respected international financial institutions are going bankrupt, and the prices of commodities in foods and metals have doubled and tripled. A year on, it’s not just a matter of India bullishness. A large blot has appeared on the landscape.
Sitting down with Mr. Chidambaram we had just one question to ask in our hour long discussion: “Can India escape a potential US recession ?”











