As the dust settles on the Mumbai terror attacks its time to look at the larger picture, dig through the layers of diplomacy, uncover where years of history, ideology and finance went wrong and strive to solve the problem without aimlessly pointing fingers. Its been established that its not a Mumbai problem, the city was just a soft target and in all probability the present Pakistani government had nothing to do with the attacks but what hangs in the future is how the newly elected Pakistani and U.S. governments, work with an Indian government that’s fighting to stay in power for the next five years.
Analyzing what would probably be the three countries greatest test in foreign policy in recent times, Paul Kapur, a faculty affiliate at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and an expert on international security in South Asia, diagnoses events of the past week on a global scale and how he expects the situation to unfold.
Click here to read the entire article.
A good analysis from Kapur, I think, especially as he mentions one credible “reason” for the attacks – Afghanistan. Why did the attacks happen now? Because the Indians have played a very careful game, with on the ground diplomacy and trade/investment into the fledgling nation. They have resisted overt military force, even after their diplomatic outposts were targetted. The primary strategic benefits to the terrorists are to distract Pakistani forces from their mission in SWAT, NWFP and assisting the NATO/UN mission in Afghanistan.
(Let me also be clear that I don’t believe there is any “reason” to kill innocent commuters at the railway station, blow up tourists, shoot into a maternity hospital and murder innocent men, women and children. I use the phrase to try and focus on what the terrorists wished to achieve.)
One interesting angle which is yet to be explored is the influence of the man alleged to be responsible for the 1993 Mumbai bombings – Dawood Ibrahim. Supposedly commuting between Karachi and Dubai for most of the last decade, Dawood has been reported to be at various times one (or more of) Mumbai’s premier standover man, mafia don, business tycoon, film financier, ISI agent, India’s most wanted man, had his global assets frozen by the US… the list goes on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawood_Ibrahim
Aside from the Malegaon blasts in 2006, which investigators were preparing to allege were committed by Hindu fundamentalists linked to the BJP, all of the significant bombings in Maharashtra (of which Mumbai is the capital) had shown a detailed level of local knowledge by the attackers. Dawood’s influence? Or another network that remains nameless?
These are just two points which can be made about the most recent attacks in Mumbai. I’m sure many PhDs have been submitted on terrorism in India since its independence from Britain in 1947!
I look forward to hearing from other contributors.
Hi! Shourik, Thanks for an in depth and incisive analysis of the Mumbai attacks. I agree with you on both points – the U.S. – Afghanistan – Pakistan angle as well as Dawood Ibrahim’s continued remote controlled influence over Mumbai.
However two other points too need to be raised. 1 is the inefficiency with which the Mumbai police and special task force were made to fight the terrorists – which questions India’s bureaucracy and corruption. This leads to my second point – India’s flawed foreign policy. Indian and Pakistan politicians need to learn how to play their diplomatic cards right – we have to maintain friendly and cordial relations with our neighbors if we are to stamp out terrorism.