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Apr 15 – Pakistan is in danger of near complete economic and political isolation as India continues to maintain the cessation of composite dialogue talks it has imposed on Pakistan since the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Islamabad has repeatedly called for resumption of dialogue since the terrorist attacks, while Delhi has refused to comply until it is assured that Pakistan will prosecute all those involved in the planning and operations. Delhi maintains that it holds information garnered from satellite, cellular and other communications devises captured at the scene that lead to specific individuals that Pakistan has as yet failed to apprehend. Islamabad denies the charge and says it is doing everything in its power to cooperate.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it clear that discussions with Islamabad “are on indefinite hold” until the country shows a willingness to identify and put on trial those it says are responsible. Of particular concern to India is Pakistan’s Internal Intelligence Service (ISI), which has been linked to militant extremists and in which the Indian government appear to have no interest in speaking to. That is a problem given that both nations are nuclear states. The Pakistani foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, has said on record that the ISI has been restructured and is now “clean” and has given support for the organizations role in rooting out Taliban extremists elsewhere.
However, given the apparent capitulation in the Swat Valley to a Taliban-lead regime, operating under strict Sharia law, these claims do not seem to be placating Indian views, least of all with Indian domestic elections just days away.
Trade between Pakistan and India, which had been growing and was forecast to hit US$10 billion by 2010, has dwindled to close to zero over the past few months, with Pakistan feeling the brunt of this economic demise. It has already had to apply for a US$7.6billion loan from the IMF in February and has garnered an additional US$2.8 billion in military aid from the Obama administration just two weeks ago.
Pakistan is now being forced to comply with India’s de facto sanctions in place. Whether or not India’s stance remains in place after its domestic elections is a question the new government will have to answer. But for now, Pakistan has been forced to recognize that its greatest traditional foe may have been its closest ally when it comes to financial and economic support via trade.
With militancy rising, and a restless population veering from chaotic democracy to military dictatorships, the future of Pakistan within the Indian subcontinent remains poised. A standing down on both sides from internal self interests, and a proven desire to engage with each other on a sound security level as a basis to resume trade are goals all concerned in Pakistan’s and India’s government wish for. However, once India’s elections are over, Pakistan must engage with the new coalition and demonstrate its sincerity in cross border security and trade. If not, the economic perils, both for the bordering Punjab region of Pakistan, and the nation as a whole, will become rapidly apparent.
April 15th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
I have said this a million times and I will say it again: The only solution is for NATO to take out pakistans nuclear weapons and let the indians handle the monsters. After all they are blood brothers!
April 16th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Bloody brothers. During partition thousands died. I cant imagine the carnage if India took over running Pakistan. It would be war. Besides, the Muslims of Pakistan originate from Persia, the Hindu’s are of Indian origin, so not really brothers. Thats why they fight.
April 17th, 2009 at 7:19 am
@Megawata Priya
“Besides, the Muslims of Pakistan originate from Persia, the Hindu’s are of Indian origin, so not really brothers. Thats why they fight.”
You’re kidding me, rite? You are seriously going to go back that far in history?!
@Ben
I don’t think India can take over Pakistan. There is no reason to. Pakistan is a sovereign country that maybe needs help in solving its issues, but takeing it over is not going to solve anything. Unfortunately, due to incredibly stupid rulers that Pakistan has had the misfortune of having, all their systems – Military/Religion/Intelligence/Government – are corrupt and inter-mingled.
And given the US’ long history of messing around in Pakistan and Afghanistan, I think the Americans should take some of the blame for it.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:59 am
Will this attitude lead the India anywhere? India and Pakistan though have same origin but can never have same destiny. What else the Indians want to see from Pakistan, the result of all the polite efforts and humble gesture has always been some disaster and increase of further hostility. Its time to take some serious steps and let Pakistan be aloof.
April 20th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Pakistan and India don’t have the same origins at all. Pakistan is Muslim, and it’s days go right back to the Mughals, who also ruled India until the British kicked them out. India is predominantly Hindi. Even the people look different, and have different cultures. In fact “India” as a concept has only been around relatively recently. To describe Pakistan and India as having the same origins is only looking back 250 years in what are 5,000 year old, completely different cultures.
April 21st, 2009 at 2:00 am
Well, one is carved out of the other. The animosity lies in the roots of culture and history.
Wait n watch, India is coming up with a spy satellite
April 21st, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Quite right, in fact they launched it yesterday – the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, and India’s first with microwave capabilities, which means it can define objects more clearly. Its main function is weather, but it’s acknowledged surveillance is also an integral part. Its currently at an orbit of 550km above the earth, at an inclination of 19 degrees. If you get your binoculars out, you can see it watching you. The project was fasttracked after 26/11.
April 22nd, 2009 at 3:02 am
Absolutely, But the terrorists are genius anti social dirty minds who tries to find the way out to make their evil plans a success. I hope India’s spy satellite approach to combat terrorism is a crisp slap on the faces of the devils. Good job RadarSat-2 team and Congratulations Indians.
I am not sure about its capability to capture smaller objects than a motor-cycle? I think the future holds the answer..
April 22nd, 2009 at 10:27 am
I would like to know the source of your data on India-Pak trade. In january, it was going on as normal inspite of the hostile feelings after the Mumbai attack.
April 22nd, 2009 at 11:34 pm
link for India-Pakistan trade relations- http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KC12Df03.html
April 23rd, 2009 at 3:44 am
The term “Stable Pakistan” has become an oxymoron. Those who run their establishment (read as their ISI and the military) and the ignorant masses who do not see the outside world, have learned to hat India passionately. They perceive India as a “Hindu” nation. Every decision that they make has become India-centric. Having evolved with the anti-Indian psyche, they have reached a stage where they simply cannot accept India as a well meaning nation and a progressive one. Their ignorance on India has been manipulated by their establishment into concocting spectacular lies that have become defacto truths. Here are some examples:
1. Hindus are to be subjugated. They are effeminate. They are weak and one brave Pakistani can handle many of them.
2. Hindus are massacring Muslims and other minorities in India systematically. Muslims are denied chances and are punished for being Muslims. They have no rights and are living as second class citizens.
3. India makes all efforts to destablize Pakistan. They never accepted the two nation theory and they separated East Pakistan for this very reason.
4. Mujib ur Rehman was an Indian agent who wanted to get to power and so used India’s help in misleading the Bengali Muslims.
5. Pakistan did not lose to India in East Pakistan. Pakistan agreed to the self-determination of their Bengali brothers. And India should do the same in regards to the self-determination of Kashmiris.
6. Pakistan defeated India in the 1948, 1965, 1971 and the recent Kargil war in 1999. Indian records are full of lies.
7. Muslims ruled Hindustan over 800 years. Muslims can never be ruled by Hindus.
8. Pakistan’s economy is drained constantly as India keeps spending beyond its means to buy arms. Pakistan has to spend an equivalent money to protect its integrity.
9. Afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union was done with India’s request to surround Pakistan from both sides. Thanks to the American allies and the Mujahideen, Pakistan defeated the Soviet Union and derailed India’s plans.
10. India has seven embassies in Afghanistan with the only goal of fomenting trouble in Balochistan, Sindh etc.
11. Lahore attack on Sri Lankan cricketers was staged by India.
12. Mumbai attacks have nothing to do with Pakistan. But the Americans, depending ever more on Indian business, have arm twisted Pakistani establishment to sign on white paper and agree to the demands of India. Mumbai attacks were staged to isolate Pakistan in the international stage.
13. Musharraf is an Indian agent under RAW’s control. No patriotic Pakistani would align himself and his nation against our Muslim brothers in Afghanistan and stop Kashmir struggle for freedom.
14. India is instigating the Taliban to spread and take over Pakistan’s institutions. They are working with the CIA to covertly destabilize Pakistan in order to remove the nukes and divide up Pakistan.
And so on. Why should India be linient all the time? Not much can be done to people’s beliefs and perceptions. Look at the way they responded to the Mumbai attacks – their media, people and the government officials.
Pakistan is headed towards an internal turmoil and may splinter up. This will be good for India from a geo-strategic stand point. A set of small nations will not become a threat. And Kashmir problem will disappear on its own. India has to hang in there somehow and protect itself. The rest will happen on its own. Pakistanis have failed to keep a nation and run it with responsibility. They have spent all their time on hatred, violence and wars. So it would be better for them to split up and turn into smaller states. India should probably help accelarate that if the situation for it arises. That is the only thing left.
April 23rd, 2009 at 4:24 am
Observer: no real apparent slow down here in Bombay, and Pakistan has always, despite the animosity, been a major trade partner, especially in the Punjab. Read my latest blog entry at http://www.chrisdevonshire-ellis.com to compare with SH. The China guys hate it but I sit between both stools and see the action. Thanks for chipping in. CDE
April 24th, 2009 at 1:39 am
India-Pak trade
Careful reading of the article reveals…
Bilateral trade between Pakistan and India will probably fall to US$900 million in the year ending March 31, 2010, compared with $2.2 billion already earned in the fiscal year ending this March 31, according to the New Delhi-based FICCI.
April 24th, 2009 at 5:57 am
I agree Observer! good observation
April 25th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Here is a recent piece on India-Pak trade.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=75797
July 7th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Thanks guys – Chris