Comments on: An Uncertain China http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html China & India, 40% of the world's population Wed, 08 Feb 2012 06:27:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Emmett-John http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-63611 Emmett-John Mon, 04 May 2009 07:31:53 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-63611 The "golden age" of China is right now; in fact, it is nearly a "glowing sunset on a glorious but short past". The “golden age” of China is right now; in fact, it is nearly a “glowing sunset on a glorious but short past”.

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61908 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Wed, 29 Apr 2009 09:19:04 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61908 @Howard - "So, it seems that economic development models matter much more than political systems". I would agree with that. It's interesting to note the current educational background of the current Indian and Chinese government leaderships. In India, it's economists and lawyers (former to drive economic reform, the latter needed for democratic legal reform) while in China they're all engineers (infrastructure developments). Perhaps when India is firmly in place with a reasonably coherent sustainable government, we'll begin to see engineers in senior positions there also to deal with the infrastructure issues. Indian's also tend to be professionals first, then politicians, in China it's the party almost from birth. Certainly I would view the Chinese leadership as the more pragmatic. They can however afford to be with no opposition. @Howard – “So, it seems that economic development models matter much more than political systems”. I would agree with that. It’s interesting to note the current educational background of the current Indian and Chinese government leaderships. In India, it’s economists and lawyers (former to drive economic reform, the latter needed for democratic legal reform) while in China they’re all engineers (infrastructure developments). Perhaps when India is firmly in place with a reasonably coherent sustainable government, we’ll begin to see engineers in senior positions there also to deal with the infrastructure issues. Indian’s also tend to be professionals first, then politicians, in China it’s the party almost from birth. Certainly I would view the Chinese leadership as the more pragmatic. They can however afford to be with no opposition.

]]> By: Howard http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61888 Howard Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:35:54 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61888 Under democracy, India's planned economy was a failure; Under communism, China's planned economy was even worse - a disaster. After the economic reform to build open and market-leading economy, both countries have been enjoying a continuous development and growth for decades. So, it seems that economic development models matter much more than political systems. Thomas Friedman once said in his book "The World Is Flat" that "Given China's joining into WTO an open voting, it will never get passed." Here are another pair of examples - Singapore and the Philippines. Singapore, being a politically autocratic (one-party ruling) and economically liberal country, is a first-class shining star in Southeast Asia, while the Philippines, being democratic politically and not-so-liberal economically, is slipping behind even Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodian. Singapore ranks very high globally in good governance, competitiveness, and transparency, while the Philippines, with all those free media, open elections, democratic politics, and good connections with US, ranks the most corrupted country in Asia. And, I now can not find proper words to describe the recent democratic events in Thailand. Mr. Deng Xiaoping once said China should learn more from the success of Singapore, and obviously his successors, former-Pres. Jiang Zemin, and Pres. Hu Jintao, are following his wisdom, while still keeping Mao's political ideology. And similiarly, Primier Singh is also a great state leader, when we talk about him economically, as former Primier Gandi or Nehru (politically)... Under democracy, India’s planned economy was a failure; Under communism, China’s planned economy was even worse – a disaster.
After the economic reform to build open and market-leading economy, both countries have been enjoying a continuous development and growth for decades.

So, it seems that economic development models matter much more than political systems.

Thomas Friedman once said in his book “The World Is Flat” that “Given China’s joining into WTO an open voting, it will never get passed.”

Here are another pair of examples – Singapore and the Philippines. Singapore, being a politically autocratic (one-party ruling) and economically liberal country, is a first-class shining star in Southeast Asia, while the Philippines, being democratic politically and not-so-liberal economically, is slipping behind even Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodian. Singapore ranks very high globally in good governance, competitiveness, and transparency, while the Philippines, with all those free media, open elections, democratic politics, and good connections with US, ranks the most corrupted country in Asia.

And, I now can not find proper words to describe the recent democratic events in Thailand.

Mr. Deng Xiaoping once said China should learn more from the success of Singapore, and obviously his successors, former-Pres. Jiang Zemin, and Pres. Hu Jintao, are following his wisdom, while still keeping Mao’s political ideology.

And similiarly, Primier Singh is also a great state leader, when we talk about him economically, as former Primier Gandi or Nehru (politically)…

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61835 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Wed, 29 Apr 2009 06:30:18 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61835 @KWC: It's not a case of betting against China. It's a case of putting money into BOTH China and India. However, in some cases, for example export manufacturing, India is starting to become the better option due to cost. In both however, a rise in domestic wealth and purchasing power are leading to large domestic markets than are becoming increasingly less restricted. However, in terms of global markets, it is Indian, rather than Chinese companies who are making the running at the present. China has some catching up to do there. As I indicated in my last sentence in the article, either one or the other is no longer enough. A presence is required in both if one is to be a competitive player, regionally or internationally. @KWC: It’s not a case of betting against China. It’s a case of putting money into BOTH China and India. However, in some cases, for example export manufacturing, India is starting to become the better option due to cost. In both however, a rise in domestic wealth and purchasing power are leading to large domestic markets than are becoming increasingly less restricted. However, in terms of global markets, it is Indian, rather than Chinese companies who are making the running at the present. China has some catching up to do there. As I indicated in my last sentence in the article, either one or the other is no longer enough. A presence is required in both if one is to be a competitive player, regionally or internationally.

]]> By: KWC http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61809 KWC Wed, 29 Apr 2009 05:52:41 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61809 Nothing will beat a determined Chinese as we had seen what they had done in Olympics. more than a decade ago, foreigners used to laughed at Chinese athletes for using drugs to cheat at winning medals. A short 10 years later, they are already world beaters in gold medal tally. Now, they are looking at innovation, quality, safety and green clean technology. Would you bet your money against them? Good luck to you. By the way, I would also like to suggest you read books by Jim Rogers especially his Bull On China. It doesn't matter whether India will be developed or not, China had its days of high development and they will find a way for sustaining its development again 'albeit Singapore style I hope'. Nothing will beat a determined Chinese as we had seen what they had done in Olympics. more than a decade ago, foreigners used to laughed at Chinese athletes for using drugs to cheat at winning medals. A short 10 years later, they are already world beaters in gold medal tally. Now, they are looking at innovation, quality, safety and green clean technology. Would you bet your money against them? Good luck to you. By the way, I would also like to suggest you read books by Jim Rogers especially his Bull On China. It doesn’t matter whether India will be developed or not, China had its days of high development and they will find a way for sustaining its development again ‘albeit Singapore style I hope’.

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61714 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Wed, 29 Apr 2009 01:49:58 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61714 Pffefer, you are entitled to your opinion. However, as I said, I have the benefit of travelling extensively to both and I stand by what I said. You've made your position very clear. Thank you for that, but please let other people breathe while reading this instead of constantly sniping at opinions which you happen not to agree with. Otherwise I regret we'll have to start moderating your comments if you continue to clutter up this site. You've had your say, now let other people have theirs. Thank you Pffefer, you are entitled to your opinion. However, as I said, I have the benefit of travelling extensively to both and I stand by what I said. You’ve made your position very clear. Thank you for that, but please let other people breathe while reading this instead of constantly sniping at opinions which you happen not to agree with. Otherwise I regret we’ll have to start moderating your comments if you continue to clutter up this site. You’ve had your say, now let other people have theirs. Thank you

]]> By: Pffefer http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61584 Pffefer Tue, 28 Apr 2009 21:01:06 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61584 Chris, You are brining NOTHING new to the table. Everything that you have said here has been said by someone else somewhere else, and for a while already. A lot of them are simply overly simplistic observations and generalizations. Like I said I have been hearing the same stuff for almost a decade and yet I have see nothing indicative enough of India faring well than China or any other country. Yes India has got its big potential with a democratic society and young population. However these alone are not good enough for a sustainable success. China and India are apples and oranges that have very little in common except for both being large, poor, third world developing countries. You don't compare apples and oranges. Chris,

You are brining NOTHING new to the table. Everything that you have said here has been said by someone else somewhere else, and for a while already. A lot of them are simply overly simplistic observations and generalizations. Like I said I have been hearing the same stuff for almost a decade and yet I have see nothing indicative enough of India faring well than China or any other country. Yes India has got its big potential with a democratic society and young population. However these alone are not good enough for a sustainable success.

China and India are apples and oranges that have very little in common except for both being large, poor, third world developing countries. You don’t compare apples and oranges.

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61464 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:56:31 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61464 @KWC: There are religious problems in India, it's a secular nation. However, violence during the elections - which have been going on the past few weeks, has been very limited. It's been remarkably peaceful in fact. Concerning India manufacturing cheap products, sheer demographics dictate it will be a major competitor to China for the next 30 years, it is a younger country than China is. Labor costs go up as a population ages, this is already starting to impact on the cost of doing business in China; viz-a-viz the new labor law; India is lifting people out of poverty, starvation is not increasing; and finally, regarding your somewhat pithy comment if I like it so much why don't I move there - I have. I live in Bombay. However I still continue to visit China regularly. Thanks for your comments. I didn't expect such hostility to the concept however I have to say, that is surprising. @KWC: There are religious problems in India, it’s a secular nation. However, violence during the elections – which have been going on the past few weeks, has been very limited. It’s been remarkably peaceful in fact. Concerning India manufacturing cheap products, sheer demographics dictate it will be a major competitor to China for the next 30 years, it is a younger country than China is. Labor costs go up as a population ages, this is already starting to impact on the cost of doing business in China; viz-a-viz the new labor law; India is lifting people out of poverty, starvation is not increasing; and finally, regarding your somewhat pithy comment if I like it so much why don’t I move there – I have. I live in Bombay. However I still continue to visit China regularly. Thanks for your comments. I didn’t expect such hostility to the concept however I have to say, that is surprising.

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61436 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Tue, 28 Apr 2009 06:09:08 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61436 @John; India is now lifting millions of people out of poverty. It's happening. It has a long way to go (an estimated 300m people live on or below the poverty line) but growth is occuring and wealth is being created. You have to start somewhere - just as China did. There's an interesting BBC interview with Mr. Chidambaram, the current Home Office (then Finance) Minister on the issue of Indian growth and poverty alliviation here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6330691.stm Yes, there is still a problem. Yes, they are dealing with it. I don't think that can be called a failure of democracy. The issue of poor crop yields and the creation of a population remaining disenfranchised comes from India using the Russian style model of agricultural collectives up until the 1990's rather than any issue of democratic government. @John; India is now lifting millions of people out of poverty. It’s happening. It has a long way to go (an estimated 300m people live on or below the poverty line) but growth is occuring and wealth is being created. You have to start somewhere – just as China did. There’s an interesting BBC interview with Mr. Chidambaram, the current Home Office (then Finance) Minister on the issue of Indian growth and poverty alliviation here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6330691.stm

Yes, there is still a problem. Yes, they are dealing with it. I don’t think that can be called a failure of democracy. The issue of poor crop yields and the creation of a population remaining disenfranchised comes from India using the Russian style model of agricultural collectives up until the 1990′s rather than any issue of democratic government.

]]> By: Chris Devonshire-Ellis http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html/comment-page-1#comment-61435 Chris Devonshire-Ellis Tue, 28 Apr 2009 05:52:42 +0000 http://www.2point6billion.com/2009/04/27/an-uncertain-china-1309.html#comment-61435 It seems my suspicions are confirmed - there is too much easy acceptance that everything is going to be permanently OK with China and that India is a disaster as a democracy. However, I don't believe this to be the case. The demographics are rapidly changing. Rather than dismiss this out of hand (I recall when I first went to China to work in 1987, people thought I was mad and that it was dirty and horrible), why don't you spend at least a little time clarifying the situation? Nandan Nilekani's new book "Imagining India" is a good place to start. Who's he? The Chairman of Infosys, and a book endorsed, no less by Thomas Friedman, who calls Nilekani "The Great Explainer"....You'll find it a well put together thesis and again, similar views on the China vs. India debate. If you don't want to listen, then fine. But I choose to study both countries, travel between them monthly, and I've had 21 years in China, 16 with my own business and investments. I can usually spot a trend, and the new one is India, and it is sustainable. Competing with China, yes, but is that such a bad thing? Probably not. But taking off those cliche'd China - India blinkers first may not be a bad idea before trying to absorb what is actually going on. It seems my suspicions are confirmed – there is too much easy acceptance that everything is going to be permanently OK with China and that India is a disaster as a democracy. However, I don’t believe this to be the case. The demographics are rapidly changing. Rather than dismiss this out of hand (I recall when I first went to China to work in 1987, people thought I was mad and that it was dirty and horrible), why don’t you spend at least a little time clarifying the situation? Nandan Nilekani’s new book “Imagining India” is a good place to start. Who’s he? The Chairman of Infosys, and a book endorsed, no less by Thomas Friedman, who calls Nilekani “The Great Explainer”….You’ll find it a well put together thesis and again, similar views on the China vs. India debate. If you don’t want to listen, then fine. But I choose to study both countries, travel between them monthly, and I’ve had 21 years in China, 16 with my own business and investments. I can usually spot a trend, and the new one is India, and it is sustainable. Competing with China, yes, but is that such a bad thing? Probably not. But taking off those cliche’d China – India blinkers first may not be a bad idea before trying to absorb what is actually going on.

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