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Oct. 16 – On the day that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao paid a rare visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, this (English) reporter happened to be part of a tour group in Pyongyang comprised of 35 Chinese nationals. The semi-hysteric welcome received by Wen Jiabao from tens of thousands of Pyongyang residents contrasted sharply with the chilly reception offered to the Chinese tourists. It brought into focus the contradiction between the ideal of “juche” (nationalism and self-reliance) espoused by the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the reality of the increasing dependency of his state on their giant neighbor.
I had participated on a Chinese tour in the expectation that it would allow me to see the people at closer quarters. I was to be disappointed – there was no interaction with North Koreans outside of the official tour guides. We stayed in the same isolated hotel (located on an island in the middle of the Taedong River) as the other foreign guests. No photos of ordinary North Koreans were permitted, and some of the photos taken by Chinese tourists were forcibly deleted by various officials during the trip.
If the only business going on between the PRC and the DPRK were restricted to tourism then such an attitude from the Korean side could possibly be sustainable. However China’s foreign investment in North Korea is quietly increasing. Whereas a decade ago most of the investment was by small private Chinese companies looking to save money by manufacturing in border areas like the Rajin-Sonbong Special Economic Zone, in recent years much larger strategic investments are being made by Chinese state-owned enterprises. They are interested in the energy and the minerals that can be extracted.
Presumably, it is not going unnoticed by people in the “hermit kingdom” that their crown jewels are being sold by the government, undermining the whole concept of self-sufficiency on which their nation is based. One good example is the Musan iron mines – supposedly the largest open iron minefield in Asia – for which the Tonghua Iron and Steel Group has purchased the rights to exploit for a period of 50 years at a cost of just US$909 million. A growing number of people may also be realizing how ore from mines like these is fueling the huge economic boom occurring just across the border.
The problem of how to keep their population ignorant of developments in China and the rest of the world is not a new one for the leaders in Pyongyang. There may be nowhere else on earth where information is controlled more strictly. Unfortunately for the current Korean regime, undeniable evidence of fantastic wealth is becoming more and more apparent to its populace. A good example is the city of Dandong, Liaoning Province.
It sits on the Chinese side of the Yalu River, clearly visible from the North Korean city of Sinuiju. My travel-mates tell me that twenty years ago Dandong was the small cousin. Today 40-storey high apartment blocks sprout all along the riverbank – taller than most apartment blocks that you will find in Pyongyang. At night the Chinese side is a sea of neon. On festival occasions the residents of Dandong seem to be almost tormenting their neighbors with ostentatious firework displays. The residents of Sinuiju go about their lives only a few hundred meters away, but they must feel separated by several worlds as they struggle to support themselves under their country’s crumbling infrastructure.
It is quite a dilemma for the North Korean leadership. By accepting large-scale investment from China (with the associated cash and improved infrastructure benefits it brings), the government weakens its own legitimacy under the principles of juche and encourages more destabilizing direct communication between Chinese and North Korean civilians. By rejecting such investments they not only miss out on the immediate and tangible benefits, they also risk incurring the ire of their larger, far more powerful neighbor. China needs those strategic resources to continue its development.
We can imagine that last week Wen Jiabao was politely explaining to Kim Jong Il the importance of opening up North Korea to more large-scale investment by China. Ironically, China will try to imitate what it has traditionally decried as typical US-style empire-building in imposing de facto control over its ex-communist cousin by using the power of capitalism to take ownership of the natural resources of North Korea.
The elephant in the room, as ever with North Korea, is its capability to produce nuclear weapons. Although China is usually portrayed as an ally, North Korean leaders will be painfully aware that without maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent they will be powerless to refuse the wishes of the Chinese. It is the last card they hold, and while China may sit on the same side of the table in international geopolitical negotiations, both sides are well aware that their relationship is far from healthy and normal.
Trundling home on the train and witnessing another curious paradox – extremely thin North Koreans tending to an apparently plentiful harvest of crops in fields across the country – I pondered how the situation would play itself out in the coming five years. Maintaining this delicate status quo is surely untenable for much longer than that. While I pondered the future, some of the older Chinese on our tour were considering something closer to home. Had their leadership not opened up to the world after the turbulence of the 1970s, their lives today would mirror those of the North Koreans they had seen (at a discreet distance) over the past week. In fact, due to the larger population density in China, their situation would have been even worse.
For all the imperfections in Chinese society, faced with this very stark comparison I think these individuals recognized just how much progress has been made in China and felt thankful for that. From a global perspective, a rogue state of 23 million on a path to oblivion is quite enough of a headache. We should feel thankful that the big brother next door with 1.3 billion has found a way to avoid that fate.
Adam Livermore is a senior consultant with Dezan Shira & Associates Dalian office. He also attends the United Nations Development Program Greater Tumen Initiative which includes North Korea. He may be contacted at dalian@dezshira.com.
Related Reading
The 2009 United Nations Greater Tumen Initiative Guide, which includes UN data on North Korea
China Briefing’s recent “Guide To China’s Neighbors”, including a chapter on North Korea
North Korea: Aid, Ideology and Atomic Bombs
Anyone For North Korea?
