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Op/Ed Commentary: Chris Devonshire-Ellis
China-India Demographic Comparisons 2010-2030
Mar. 9 – As India begins to prepare itself for a second wave of growth in the aftermath of what has indeed proven to be a difficult financial crisis for Asia, questions are now being asked as to the extent of competition India really brings to global markets when measured up against China.
In some respects, the rise of India has been greatly overshadowed by what has happened in China over the past twenty years. If the development in China had not occurred, then it would be India that would be considered the new darling of global growth. To some extent, that has enabled India to commence its own growth curves without the media attention that has been focused on China. In other ways, however, there is little doubt that the phenomenal growth of China has served to spur India into action, and to finally release the country from its moribund, 50-year hangover of independence from Britain.
While China has largely dominated headlines, India has begun to act. In fact, over much of the past decade, India’s growth patterns have mirrored China’s at an average of about 8 percent per annum until the financial crisis hit, albeit coming from a far smaller base. Currently however, India’s share of global trade is a little under 20 percent of China’s total. But with an economy about to break into the global top ten in terms of size – India currently is in twelfth position – the global community is both starting to take note of India’s rise and to appreciate the clout; as well as the opportunities such power brings.
From here, despite spending twenty years behind China in the race for global trade, the demographics indicate strong support for India closing the gap. Ranked second among the world’s fastest growing economies, India is outstripping China’s position, which has slipped into fifth place. India’s pace of growth is accelerating, while China shows signs of slowing. In terms of resources, India also appears to hold some aces. Its available workforce is now double that of Chinas, and is crucially growing younger. Its birthrate is nearly three times that of China, suggesting that future cheap global labor requirements and labor intensive industries will start to migrate. What used to be China’s main economic driver – the provision of cheap labor to service global demand – is being whittled away.
That goes hand in hand with natural resources. India possesses 800,000 square kilometers more usable arable land than China, and 10 times the natural fresh water resources. This has huge implications for the agricultural and textile industries. If India is smart, and manages these resources properly, it will begin to emerge as a highly competitive player in these global markets. This will affect India’s domestic demand as well – increased demand for Indian agriculture will lift hundreds of millions of Indian farmers out of poverty and into meaningful consumption and wealth creation models.
Much has been made of India’s lack of infrastructure, and again, when held up against the current Chinese systems it looks ramshackle. A currently miserable 70,000 kilometers of highway (express routes) pales against China’s 1.4 million kilometers. India has plans however to develop and invest significant amounts into building a national highway system, and these are currently well underway, as we reported in India Briefing “Investing In India’s Public-Private Partnerships.” This is expected to double India’s available highways in length in the next five years.
It is worth noting where China was in similar terms in 1980. Thirty years ago, China itself had very little expressway, and most of its roads were poor quality. Today, popular routes like the Guangshen toll route between Guangzhou and Shenzhen are taken for granted, yet this was only opened in 1995, and was financed largely by a Hong Kong entrepreneur. India’s own infrastructure development curve can be expected to follow a similar pattern of development over the next twenty years.
By then, 2030, India will have overtaken China in terms of population, and almost certainly in GDP growth rates. With double the amount of available workforce, a younger population and a consumer economy of its own of about half a billion people in its new middle class, India’s tortoise against China’s hare will have caught up significantly. When that happens, the bets for who reaches the finishing line as top dog by 2099 will look very different than they do today.
China vs. India 2010 – Fast Facts
China vs. India 2030 – Global Forecasts
(Data in both charts extrapolated from sources at Wikipedia, U.S. Dept of Commerce, CIA, Free World Academy, Keystone, Photius, Legatum Institute. Please note data for 2030 is partially subjective, although based on publicly available forecasts and is inherently prone to twenty years of potentially unforeseen circumstances)
March 9th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Your figures are very dubious. I have no idea where you you got your ranking for fasting growing economies. Anyone who follows economic news will realize that India’s growth rate is quite a bit lower than China’s currently. Perhaps you had the rankings reversed. Also do not forget other emerging markets in Asia such as Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh (though much smaller) their fundamentals are better than either two. Based on my judgement the gap between China and India is only going to drastically increase (even further) in the next two years. We could well be seeing more of a parity between India and Pakistan if both should reach their potentials.
March 9th, 2010 at 3:39 pm
Thank you for your comments Abdul. I disagree with your comments over India / China growth rates. India’s GDP growth is moving ahead of China’s now, and is expected to be @10%. China, at 8%, and I suspect that may be massaged higher than is sustainable. We have multiple offices in both locations and are able to assess our figures from our own on-the-ground experiences and research in both countries. In terms of demographics, the predictions do not support any evidence that a China-India gap is going to widen. In fact – as I pointed out – quite the reverse.
In terms of Pakistan and India, Pakistan’s total GDP is a quarter of that of India’s, and it’s population also about the same – 20% of India’s. In terms of ‘potential’ it would mean a major economic disaster had occured in India if Pakistan and India reached parity. Far smarter would be for them to join forces and concentrate on building infrastructure together than wasting money on their disputes. But Pakistan is simply too small to compete or reach parity with its larger brother, and that won’t happen. – Chris
March 9th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Comments from Abdul are typical of a Pakistani. Indians have no other nation in mind than China these days when it comes to economy and development. There are many mistakes China has made, which let us hope Indians won’t make. It would be interesting to see how these two nations fare during next 20-30 years. Though Indian democracy has been curse in short run, in long run it will benefit Indian economy and society both.
March 9th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
Hi Chris
India’s growth rate actually hasn’t moved ahead of China’s yet, and is not forecast to do so in 2010. The India targets that have been mentioned are 9% in 2012 and then 10% in 2014
The Chinese has deliberately set a low growth target of 8% in order to signal a slowdown is required. However, the IMF estimates 10% whilst the World Bank has gone for 9%.
I’ve attached a couple of analyses which provide some context
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/3/1/business/5740897&sec=business
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15270708
http://neweconomist.blogs.com/.m/photos/uncategorized/20070125_inhotpursuiteconomist.gif
March 9th, 2010 at 7:44 pm
No change in number of English speakers in China over 20 years?
March 9th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
I have a more pessimistic outlook for both countries. The figures for 2010 above state that China has 250 million workers and India 500 million. I find that figure for China difficult. Are the rest of the population for China (1.3 billion – 250 million = 1.05 billion) children and retirees? Nevertheless neither country has full employment at the moment. Over the next 20 years with improvements in technology and work practices, and with the West perhaps tightening belts (if jobs go overseas do you really think spending will go up), do you think there will be work for 175(?) million Chinese and 600 million Indian workers? Think of the investment in education and training required to be made. Even then the internal growth of both countries will eventually slow down as developed and other developing countries compete for resources.
Other figures for 2010 stated that India has 314,400 sq. km of available fresh water vs. 3720 sq. km for China and India. That is actually 85 times more water in area terms not 10 times. I would have thought volume as opposed to area should have been a better measure for water. In addition the figures also list that India has more than double China’s arable area. Even taking the figures as stated China currently produces and transports more food than India. I’ve also read somewhere that both countries are depleting their water-tables through the overuse of subterranean water and India has a high suicide rate amongst indebted farmers.
March 10th, 2010 at 1:15 am
Is India the next Superpower? FYI, India is a Superpower.
Just consider the following statistics.
1. India is the largest democracy in the world.
2. India is the oldest civilization on earth with over 8000 years of history.
3. India’s 1.5 billions population is larger than China’s 1.4 billions.
4. The fastest growing economy in the world for the last thirty years, averaging 20% a year, compared to China’s 10%.
5. The smartest people in the world with the highest IQ anywhere on earth.
6. India has the longest wall in the world, the only manmade structure visible on the moon.
7. India will send a man to moon by 2010.
8. India has the lowest cost car in the world, the Nano from Tata motor.
9. 60% of engineers in Microsoft, Oracle, Sun, Google and NASA are Indians.
10. 25% of current US governors are Indian-Americans, including the youngest one, governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal.
March 10th, 2010 at 2:18 am
If we just take random anecdotes, there’d be many more claimants to superpower status. Ireland definitely should be one. They gave America a president. And everyone knows they’re the home of the Faerie people! Don’t you read Artemis Fowl? That’s got to be older than 8000 years. A blink of an eye!
And where’s this man-made wall visible on the moon located? I really got to visit it.
March 10th, 2010 at 11:58 am
India and China, the world’s oldest civilizations will progress. No doubt about that. Now the Chinese will be growing slower than the Indians from the next few onwards because China has grown at double digit growth rates for a long time and from now on it has to slow down, but still the growth is going to be there, may be at 8, 7, 6 etc etc over a period of a decade. India is going to accelerate above 10% and may even reach higher percentages. The foundation for higher growth has been laid and the growth rate is increasing over a period of time from 6 and now an average of 9%. The target is now 10% and above. India’s growth is about inclusiveness. That’s the development must happen all over India. Even though one can see good construction activities in cities, one will not see tall towers in cities but can see better village roads and infrastructure including roads, electricity etc and increased construction, business activities in villages. The mobile phone revolution taking place is a fine example of such inclusive growth in which urban and rural areas are benifitting equally. Such reforms are required for improvements in all sectors and to sustain above 10 percent growth rates for a longer period of time.
March 10th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Oh, no. Not another China-India pi$$ing contest. Both countries could do without one, especially India which has a HUGE distance to cover before even thinking about any sort of parity.
Efficiency in energy usage is a concern with Chine as is return on capital employed (ROCE). It takes $4.5 of investment to get $1 worth of growth in India and the figure for China is $5 of input for $1 of growth. (How? Well, the savings rates for India and china are 35% and 50% respectively. Growth rates are 8% and 10% respectively)
In any case, the constraints on growth are primarily of the energy variety. What happens when fossil fuels run out?
The world is buig enough for both giants though I suspect China will want it all, true to form, and become the master of Asia. India’s more modest aims – to old its own in its backyard – are much more attainable than China’s grandiose ones, IMHO.
March 10th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
No man made structure or wall is visible from space. Just set the right altitude in Google Earth software and see for yourself. Its just tourism PR.
Indians are quite inward looking (as most democracies are in general) and really care only about india’s own growth. Comparisons are nice, but we don’t care if pakistan improves or not and we don’t care if china is richer. There are many countries who are already richer than both. Our main interest in China and Pak is to avoid trouble from these non-democratic countries where the ego and cruelty of a few leaders can cause us harm without any concern about how it will affect their own people. If either country were to become a true democracy it will be much easier for all to co-operate and grow together.
India’s challenges are 1) Educating the youth so their potential is not wasted 2) Water and agri land resources management 3) much much speedier courts. Other issues like infrastructure are being addressed, corruption is actually reducing (slowly) and its getting easier to get things done in govt offices etc. But the above 3 points are not.
March 10th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Some great commentary there!
@Andy – I see what China and the World Bank say, however a lot of China’s GDP growth is in that property bubble and is unreal. India’s seems more stable. A lot of businesses closing in South China. Comparing Shanghai & Mumbai, I can’t get a table at a restaurant in Mumbai, in Shanghai they’re only half full. So what I see is that India’s real growth is higher than China’s even now.
@AIR – China’s population decreases over the same period, so % of English speakers actually increases
@Observer, Asok, Vijay, AIr, Sud, Dove fair comments, thanks.
I’ve yet to be convinced of any man made structure that can be seen from the moon though….can anyone elaborate?
March 10th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
Few corrections: China has the largest workforce in the world – ~800M. India’s workforce will overtake China in 2025. India has higher total length of roads laid, but not as express ways (chk CIA world factbook). Huge investments are being made in this area & there is good participation from pvt sector. China overtaking India in english – never gonna happen (atleast qualitatively so as to snatch an entire industry away from India). Its simply easy for Indians to learn english, because Indian languages & English come from the same root (proto indo european), whereas its not the same for Chinese. Also, English is an absolute necessity in India – there is a change of native language for every 200 KM you travel in any direction in India !!!
There is one interesting dynamic. China is often overrated. India is often underrated. Reason – China relies on FDI more. So there is a need to put up nice face all the time. Also, China’s govt has total control over the facts released. Considering that this was the same govt who was responsible for 100M deaths of their own people, I’d take it with a pinch of salt. Historically, there were shady characters who played up India’s poverty to receive aid. Dont believe me, pay attention to Christian fund raising ads in the West. I have met people (westerners) who have been to both India & China and they surprisingly say that India has lesser poverty.
India’s consumption is 2/3rds of the GDP, whereas China’s is only 1/3rd. China is firmly stuck in export driven growth. To solve their recession problem, China has over invested in the infrastructure. Not a good model. Who can afford those super bullet trains when the workers are making peanuts ? China is in a big bubble. India on the other hand looks solid. Ofcourse India is not as effecient in terms of governance, but India is more stable.
India has few unique advantages which China doesnt:
#1. Religion: Festivals throughout the year. Good reason to boost spending. Not to mention the super lavish weddings (matter of pride for common Indians).
#2. Cricket: An entire industry dependent on India’s consumers !
#3. Movies: Largest movie industry (total 11) in the world in terms of production (~1000/year) and ticket sales (4bn). For the most part, this industry evolved totally with internal funding and hence very stable. Oflate, foreign companies have started co-funding.
#4 Elections: Yes ! Its a huge spending event in India where a good amount of stolen public money flows back into the economy.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
Yeah, something’s seriously screwed up about those numbers. I just can’t believe there’s only 250 million employable people in China, or only 10 million will speak English in 20 years’ time.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
Hi
@asok
Before you submit facts, you really need to do some research:
3. There aren’t 1.5billion Indians in India. See the CIA Factbook
4. Please look at the following chart from the Economist which disproves your statement: http://neweconomist.blogs.com/.m/photos/uncategorized/20070125_inhotpursuiteconomist.gif
5. I think the following article disproves your statement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations
Whilst housing prices are undeniably high, it only constitutes a housing bubble when there are no buyers. Given the incredible demand driven by the urbanisation process, there certainly won’t be a lack of buyers in the next 5years.
The Factbook road figures have finally been updated with the correct China figures. Have a look yourself
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2085rank.html?countryName=China&countryCode=ch®ionCode=eas&rank=2#ch
March 10th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
Please ignore the last part of that post. That wasn’t supposed to be there
March 10th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
@ Chris
Whilst housing prices are undeniably high, a housing bubble only becomes a crisis when there are no buyers.
Given the incredible demand driven by the urbanisation process, there certainly won’t be a lack of buyers in the next 5years.
Also remember that Shanghai (and most other cities in China) have had numerous housing bubbles inflate and then burst over the past 15years. Yet there has barely been a pause in overall economic development.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
@Sud
The recent multi-year ICOR (ROCE) estimates I’ve seen are 3.7 for both China and India.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
@Dove
Good post.
It’s better to make sure your own house is in order first. If you’re happy with your own situation, who cares what others think?
March 10th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
@ Ananda
I’m just focusing on the facts that I’m confident of, as I don’t have time to get into a philosophical and societal discussion.
Inside China, people are very realistic about the situation and the problems they face, and just get on with things. It is outsiders who keep hyping China up, not the people inside China.
The Factbook road figures have finally been updated with the correct China figures. The Chinese government was under-reporting these for most of the past decade.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2085rank.html?countryName=China&countryCode=ch®ionCode=eas&rank=2#ch
The new HSR trains are designed to compete with air travel for the 30% of the population who can afford to fly. They don’t expect most of the population to use these services as they don’t earn enough.
Another benefit is that passenger services can be removed from the existing slow lines, and used for freight instead. Note that there is a huge shortage of railway freight capacity within China – which still discourages development of the central and western regions.
As for FDI, in 2009 it was $90billion which is less than 2% of GDP. These days, domestic factors are much important in the economy.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
I don’t understand how you can open a consultancy when you cannot even understand basic statistics. Water area does not equals water resource….it means how much of your territory is water and this includes SEA WATER. India is a coastal country thats why they have more water based territory. 200 million workforce? OMG, I won’t even do business with such shallow understanding of basic statistics. Just use some simple logics and common sense….I don’t even want to correct your other ‘facts’.
March 11th, 2010 at 12:21 am
@Chris Devonshire-Ellis
I respectfully disagree – statistics from reputable sources such as the IMF, World Bank, Goldman Sachs present very different figures for 2010 or even 2030. Could you provide your sources for the figures for credibility sake?
As for comparing getting restaurant in Shanghai vs Bombay – you obviously have to take into account that Shanghai is has more world class restaurants. Remember in Bombay, about 60% of the population is famished and lives in slums. It’s like saying that restaurant in Karachi are always full (and they are) and comparing to a developed China. Secondly one must always be careful about anecdotal evidence.
I have spent lots of time both countries on business and it is pretty obvious that the Indian society has been a massive failure. Compared to Pakistan, they have more poverty. In fact, UN figures suggest that India is the most impoverished country in the world according to quality of life and malnutrition. I continue to be rather pessimistic as India’s prospects – religious and ethnic faultlines rub against each other and cause frequent bloodshed. Extreme poverty afflicts most of India (and Pakistan for that matter). Remember, South Asia is the most backward and poverty-stricken part of the world and compared with East Asia (the richest in Asia). Hence, apples and oranges.
March 11th, 2010 at 1:24 am
Again, great thinking and commentary here guys, thanks. Really appreciate it.
@Ananda: I agree with pretty much what you said bar one point: China’s workforce is nowhere near 800million. Thats over half the population. China is ageing, and you’ll see in parks as many Grandparents as you will kids of five and under.
Otherwise I’d concur with pretty much everything else you’ve said.
@Andy: Someone bought this to my attention today, a really interesting take on China property and why it is sustainable, from the China Sourcing Blog:
http://www.chinasourcingblog.org/2010/03/jim-chanos-china-bears-and-the.html. I’d also point out that the second hand housing market in China is virutally non-existant – its all new buyers (government, mainly) so I agree contraywise (to quote Alice’s Tweedledum and Tweedledee);
@AIR, the English spoken stats; China claims 100million “are learning”, however we quoted in measurable degrees of fluency in a 1st, 2nd and 3rd language, which many Indians have, but very few Chinese do, so I’m inclined to believe the 10 million figure. Beijing taxi drivers before the Olympics were supposed to reach a 80% English fluency, but it never happened;
@Abdul; I don’t know what Mumbai you refer to, but it’s not the one I see, don’t believe Slumdog Millionaire is the end word. India does have more poverty than Pakistan, but then India is far larger in population. Measured on that scale, China has more poverty than Pakistan. As for East Asia, really, there is no comparison between India and what is happening in Primorsky-Krai (Russia), Jilin, and North Korea. That is East Asia.
However, great feedback. Thanks again to you all for your efforts and comments. Keep them coming! – Chris
March 11th, 2010 at 2:44 am
@Chris,
Here’s the working pop data. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2095rank.html
@Andy,
China’s FDI for 2009 was $576.1bn. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2198rank.html?countryName=China&countryCode=ch®ionCode=eas&rank=9#ch
I have come across many articles over a period of time which was arguing on the over-investment lines. Sorry I couldn’t find them all.
March 11th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
“I think the following article disproves your statement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations”
Man… something seriously wrong with China’s netizens. Almost everyone I have come across, even supposedly sane people who rely on facts & figures, seriously believe in this “national IQ” thing. Thanks for the link Andy. I have been wondering from where they pull up these stats (apart from that youtube video titled “scientific proof for why India will not overtake China” or something like that).
I see a good market for our fake spiritual Gurus to enter China. Just give them an ego massage and voila, you are a millionaire !
Its good to love one’s country, but that shouldn’t blind one to ground realities. Having blind faith will always lead to disasters. Germans blindly supported Hitler. Imperial Japan thought they could get away with Pearl Harbour. Chairman Mao thought his “Great Leap Forward” was really going to be a great leap forward. Once in a while, opening your eyes and questioning the rationality of the herd will do some good to your nation.
March 11th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
@Ananda
FYI, I’m not a Chinese netizen so your assumption is wrong. Please check your facts before you start typing.
As I said, the facts are what matters, and everything I’ve written is accurate and can be substantiated.
As for the IQ ranking methodology, I think their central premise and supporting data is pretty flaky at times. However, what they have done is research a particularly contentious subject and point out that there appear to be significant variations in IQ, which does merit investigation.
Personally I think a lot of the low IQ scores are due to the number of malnourished/starving children in those countries and the lack of wealth/educational opportunities.
On the topic of the Chinese citizenry, there are a lot of misguided/uninformed/angry people online, and this is magnified by that fact that the online world is really the only “public sphere of expression” available in the country.
From my experience, every Chinese citizen is profoundly aware of their countries flaws and the need to improve (eg. the endemic corruption, low wages, social instability, inequality etc).
As an outsider looking in, I see significant and measurable progress being made in every realm of society.
March 11th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
@ Chris
The points that Jim Chanos make are accurate and are valid and I do not disagree that there are indicators of a bubble.
However, a property bubble simply does not have the same effect in a fast-developing poor country where there is a huge unfulfilled demand for housing.
March 11th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
@Ananda
The $90billion I quoted was in relation to the 2009 FDI inflow.
If I look at the total stock of FDI, the quoted $576billion in China is just over 11% of the economy.
In comparison, India’s $161 billion in FDI is over 14% of the economy.
So by that measure, which is the more FDI dependent economy?
Also, I think non-financial FDI is generally a good thing, particularly since these are normally longer-term investments.
—-
March 11th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
DATA PROBLEMS
Employment data looks very questionable. Data in the China Statistical Yearbook suggests that non-agricultural employment is at least 150 million above your estimate. The Indian source you cite suggests that non-agricultural employment there is much below your estimate.
Further, citation of Wikipedia as a source is not advised. Wikipedia can be a good source for finding actual source data, which then should be cited. Despite all the claims about accuracy compared to Britannica, etc. the fact remains that someone might have falsely manipulated a Wikipedia article just before you got to it.
Wendell Cox
Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
Principal, Demographia, St. Louis
http://demographia.com/
March 12th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
@Andy,
“I’m not a Chinese netizen so your assumption is wrong.”
Sure, I believe
“what they have done is research a particularly contentious subject and point out that there appear to be significant variations in IQ, which does merit investigation.”
hehehehe. I’m not complaining that India got low IQ scores, if that is how you understood me. I question the very basis that IQ is a standard to measure intelligence and the impact of collective intelligence on national wealth & if there can be such a thing as “national IQ”. Did you read the criticism section btw ?
As for data collection in India, heard about the “unique ID” project India is undertaking ? Nandan Nilekani, one of the founder of Infosys (started with $250 investment and has grown to multi billions now) is heading the project. He has experience executing complex projects for top corporations in the world and he says that its a mammoth task just to assign a unique ID to every Indian. Talk about some Nazi’ish guy measuring the IQ of 1.2bn people of India. LOL ! Man, these guys know how to sell to the Chinese ! Anyways, you are entitled to your FAITH and I dont see any point in discussing this further, we can just agree to disagree.
As for the FDI thing, I apoligize for bringing up the wrong stats. It doesn’t include investment in share markets (FTA: “Direct investment excludes investment through purchase of shares”). My main argument was that China is putting up nice face to prevent flight of capital. I’m looking for foreign-share-investment/GDP ratio, will share if I find. I’m definitely sure that its a much higher number than in India.
As for FDI flow into India, its mainly Indian black money being routed back to India. Our bastards in power ship out their kickback money to swiss banks. Then they will legitimize it by re-routing it back to India through Mauritius. Take a look at this. Mauritius has suspiciously high amount of FDI. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_india#Foreign_direct_investment_in_India
So how does this compare with China – my theory is that India is not a very attractive place for foreign investors (reason: bureaucracy, labour laws, democracy, free media – not the best deal when you can invest in China). So the FDI coming to India is in reality Indian money. Since the investors, who are Indians, have better knowledge of ground realities, India is less vulnerable to capital flight. Heck, $160bn is throwaway money when you compare it with $1.5tn Indians have stashed in Swiss bank alone ! In China’s case, an artificial green picture is painted all the time. The bubble gets bigger all the time and when it pops, as all bubbles do, there will be bigger impact.
March 12th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
@Wendell, for employment we looked at other data also. CII and CCPIT, not just Wiki. Wiki we use for geographic issues, not demographic;
@Ananda, Andy, the suggestion that Indians have lower IQs than Chinese is incorrect, and borderline eugenic. There is no data anywhere that suggest ethnic groups of homo sapiens hve diversified sufficently to affect overall mental cognition and the idea is absurd.
Overall I find the competitiveness a bit odd, and the ultra online aggresiveness towards any competitor towards China a bit alarming. Personally I’m just happy to be doing business in both and enjoying the experience of seeing not just one – but two superpowers develop side by side is a rare opportunity in a career. And immensely exciting.
India feels rather like China did in 1985.
March 13th, 2010 at 3:38 am
Oh dear, a silly article based more on wishful thinking than any real hard facts, and a load of ignorant comments to boot.
India is a joke. There are so many internal conflicts: Telengana, Gurhkaland, Naxalites, Maoists, Kashmir and that Pradesh near China. Then there’s the Muslim/Hindu problems. Then there’s the sabre-rattling against Pakistan. There’s the home-grown terrorists and the Afghan ones. There’s the Sikh/Hindu/Christian problem too. Not to mention the hundreds of millions of disenfranchised “Untouchables” who are being down-trodden with heavier boots, with no hope of improving their lives.
China’s civilization is older than India’s. India’s greatest contribution to world science was the zero. Nothing more. To that China has given the world science, mathetmatics, art, literature, and not to mention one of the most important devices: the printing press. China’s society is pretty stable (yes yes they can’t vote but it was stable even under the Emperors) – something which cannot be said of India.
India is nothing more than a nuclear-armed nation of beggars. The gap between rich and poor is widening faster than its economy is growing, and will no doubt bring massive problems in the near future. The current leaders and businessmen are enriching themselves by ravaging their country and their less fortunate brethren (who they refuse to educate); just as their imperial masters of the past enriched Britain by ravaging all the colonies. It is a self defeating exercise. Communism and militant Marxism could raise its head with even more force soon than already. Power is concentrated in a few families which got most of their power and wealth through crooked deals with the Imperialists. These are injustices against the very Indian people themselves, and will not be resolved by offering a $100 car.
PUH-lease Writer, don’t even think about comparing Mumbai and Shanghai. Mumbai is a giant slum with a couple of skyscrapers, where babies are born on the roadsides, right next to where men defecate. Shanghai is a world leading city on par with New York. What a preposterous comparison! HAHAHA!
Ultimately, all the zealous Indian imperialists here have to face the facts of the matter. India is an artificial construct, with no precedent, and a bleak future. The British built a great imperial dominion in India by utilizing the ethnic, religious and linguistic divisions of what is essentially one continent to their advantage. It’s continued existence to this day is truly surprising, but the country is falling apart under too many pressures. China has been a united country for thousands of years, and so is not under similar pressures.
We cannot say who will be the most important nation in the world in 2030, but India certainly doesn’t even have anything remotely like a chance at reaching the top. In 2030, rather than worrying about how to beat China, “Indians” (if they even exist then) will be more concerned with keeping the country in one piece. I think they will fail.
March 13th, 2010 at 5:00 am
Chris,
You shuold read this better written article.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm2830.cfm
March 15th, 2010 at 8:43 am
@MahamahaRaja,
I just cant stop laughing at your ignorance.
“India is an artificial construct, with no precedent, and a bleak future… It’s continued existence to this day is truly surprising…”
You said it best, “its continued existence is truly surprising”, you can work backwards and ask why it continues to exists. It used to be a favourite hobby of Western intellectuals post WW2 to predict India is going to fall in 5 years blablabla. All of them had to eat their words. China has to deploy huge forces to maintain peace in their “motherland” (Tibet,Xinjiang), but India despite being “an artificial construct”, has managed to be a democracy for the past 6 decades.
“There are so many internal conflicts: Telengana, Gurhkaland, Naxalites, Maoists, Kashmir and that Pradesh near China.” – There’s a difference between conflict and a disagreement. Considering the fact that India herself is a young democracy, such disagreements are bound to happen. But India has gracefully managed to sort out her problems. Unlike China who has to deploy military forces against unarmed Tibetans & Uighurs. Kashmir has free pres, democracy with 76% voter turn out. Beat that.
“China’s civilization is older than India’s. India’s greatest contribution to world science was the zero. ”
LOL. India’s major contribution is in the “inner science”. Lets see, wasn’t China the largest Buddhist nation in the world for the past 2000 years ? Many top universities in the world in USA, Europe, Japan etc have dedicated Indology departments. So they are idiots ? How many universities have Sinology departments ? As for your “zero” argument, yeah, “zero” was discovered by Indians, whats your point ?
“China’s society is pretty stable”
China has an average of 90,000 demonstrations per year, official figures. So realistically, people say that it could be upto 300,000. (src: “People’s republic of capitalism” documentary). Why did China pull out “Avatar” from the screens, can you pls answer ? Why does China have heavy troop deployment in Tibet and Xinjiang ? Why doesnt China let free internet ? Why doesnt China give access to free press in Tibet ? Why doesnt China let the private sector participate in the news media ?
“The gap between rich and poor is widening faster than its economy is growing, and will no doubt bring massive problems in the near future. ”
LOL, India doesnt have Hukou. India doesnt have state monopoly in everything. India doesnt force people to save their money in state owned banks. India doesnt give preferential loans to SOEs. India is not a namesake communist nation, but India has genuine social conscious programs – like 100 day rural employment guarantee, free meals to 150 million school children etc. India ranks better in terms of Income equality than China.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality
“Power is concentrated in a few families…”
Are you talking about the Politburo or the Princelings of China ? Do you understand “democracy” ?
“Mumbai is a giant slum with a couple of skyscrapers, where babies are born on the roadsides, right next to where men defecate. Shanghai is a world leading city on par with New York.”
That pretty much summarizes it. In India, the super rich and super poor coexist side by side. In China, there are super rich first worldish cities which is only accessible to an elite few, while the rest are in heavily polluted dumps. Thats what China is, a big shiny glass ball, but pretty hollow inside. Here’s the other China which I’m sure you wouldn’t like to talk about.
http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/
“In 2030, rather than worrying about how to beat China, “Indians” (if they even exist then) will be more concerned with keeping the country in one piece. I think they will fail.”
Thanks for your kind words. Forget 2030. I heard there’s going to be power transition in 2012 in China. Last time, when there was talk of power transition, it led to Cultural Revolution and the mass hunger, mass genocide, mass cultural destruction and even mass cannibalization. I hope China wouldn’t fall to the same fate in 2012. Good luck.
Excerpts from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_revolution :
“Some of the most extreme violence took place in the southern province of Guangxi, where a Chinese journalist found a “disturbing picture of official compliance in the systematic killing and cannibalization of individuals in the name of political revolution and ‘class struggle.’”[31] Senior party historians acknowledge that “In a few places, it even happened that ‘counterrevolutionaries’ were beaten to death and in the most beastly fashion had their flesh and liver consumed [by their killers].”[32] Not even the minor children of ‘enemies of the people’ were spared, as more than a few were tortured and bludgeoned to death, dismembered and some of their organs – hearts, livers, and genitals – eaten during ‘human flesh banquets’.[33] As a result of this frenzied killing and ‘obligatory cannibalism’, an estimated 100,000 people were killed in Guangxi alone.[33]“
March 15th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Why so serious?
March 15th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
Gentlemen can we try and keep this debate civil please. Its not about aggresive competitiveness its about two economies moving forward. I ask you to be more polite please and not so confrontationla or rude. Otherwise I’m going to have to start blocking some of your commentary. MahamahaRaja that is you specifically.
@Bigfoot, I read Derek Scissors article – thanks for the link, however I disagree with nearly all of it. He may be an economist, but he doesn’t understand what is going on in India, the meaning of the budget or the reconstruction that is actually going on in PPP’s. Which is hardly surprising when he writes commentary from his campus at Maryland.
March 15th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
CLARIFYING
With respect, my point on the use of Wiki is that the source is generally avoided. Its use is to identify real sources. I would issue a failing grade to any student who ever cited it in a source, whether for geography or anything else.
As for the employment numbers, the principal sources are government departments. The numbers you cite are substantially at odds with government figures for urban areas (much less the entire working population). There is simply no way that urban employment can be greater in India than in China.
Best regards,
Wendell Cox
March 16th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
@Wendell, I concur with that analysis. The urban population in China has been falling and is now about 45.7%, with about 607 million, and about in India it is about 40% of the population at about 480 million, so you’re right. However, it’s difficult to get accuracy into these figures as (a) we’re not students providing data for examination, this is a daily news commentary, and our resources (which are in both countries, not just online on wiki) are therefore limited to that format, (b) China and India measure their urban populations in different ways, so its difficult anyway to obtain an accurate comparison. As I mentioned in the projected figures, there was a good deal of subjectiveness within them. Looking into the future is always a mugs game, everyone is almost always invariably wrong. However as can be seen from the number of comments, the article fulfilled its function in prompting people to debate the issues. That’s a good thing.
March 16th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
I apologize for my aggressiveness if any. In fact some of my aggressiveness is because I love China ! I’m sure most of the Indians who are aware of the history of both India & China will feel the same way. India & China are sister cultures and the relationship was flushed down the toilet ever since the communists came to power. An interesting behaviour I find among the Chinese netizens is their uniform hatred for India and Indian culture. There seems to be no variations in the opinion. Feels like an army of bloggers mass produced in a factory and released in to the world.
My theory for Chinese communist hatred for India: China is going through a classic “old vs new” phase. Buddhism was the true identity of China for the past 2 millenia. Since CPC came to power, they want to erase the old identity and replace it with something else (what it is I dont know). Thats why they are so hyper about Tibetan Buddhism. It wasn’t the case early on. Till ‘56, CPC was understanding of Tibet’s unique culture and the need to preserve it. ‘56-76 heavy oppression. Early ’80s, they wanted to welcome back His Holiness; later things got worse again. All these events point to one fact: There is a desire to maintain peace within Tibet. To achieve that, recognition of Buddhism is necessary. But recognizing Buddhism in Tibet will raise the question of recognizing it in the rest of China. Hence the old vs new conflict. In another 1 or 2 decades, Tibetan culture may totally disappear. The Tibetan exile community in India and the Tibetan cultural areas in India – Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim stick out as a sore thumb and as a symbol of defiance against the state propaganda. True unaltered Tibetan Buddhism is only preserved in Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim. There is also a desire to belittle Indian culture. Reason – by belittling Indian culture, they can rid themselves of their own Indian influenced past. I hope my Chinese friends will realize what their leaders are trying to pull off. China, like India, has survived for a long long time against all invasions. Right now, China is suffering from the invasion within. I sincerely pray that the true Chinese culture and identity will prevail and reveal itself once again.
March 16th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
@Ananda, I would totally agree with your last sentence. Thanks Chris
March 16th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
CLARIFYING
Chris…
Thank you for the comment. Perhaps I was not clear enough. The Wiki point is simply that the source is insufficiently reliable. It is not just that Wiki is subject to vandalism, it is that the contributors often have little sense of the validity of the information they are providing. On the other hand, Wiki is a great source for finding the reliable data, because sources are often provided.
My further point would be that when data fails to pass a reasonableness test, it either needs to be discarded or checked further. In fact, according to the UN, which uses a standard definition of urban, While China is growing less quickly than India, its urban population is larger and growing faster. In 2007, China was about 40% urban and is expected to reach 60% by 2030. India was at 30% and is projected to reach 40% by 2030. A larger China with a larger urban population and a higher GDP per capita can only mean that non-agricultural employment is higher in China than in India (as is reflected in the readily available government data). But my point is simply one of sources. It is just not that hard to run down government data, which is far less than perfect, but is by far the most authoritative.
Best regards,
Wendell Cox
March 17th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
Thanks for pointing that out Wendell. We appreciate your comments. Chris
March 17th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
Re: Writer’s intimidation.
My comments were not directed at anyone but at the premise of the mirage of India itself. While a certain other commentator begins his comment with the childish and sad “attack” line of “LOL I can’t stop laughing at your ignorance” in some ridiculous personal attack, you try to single me out. This is pathetic. I did not even bother to read any further into his post after such an immature opening. Your favouritism of this other “commentor” is quite clear with your prompt and consistent praise and gratitude to every single one of his comments. Are you two just the same individual?
In my earlier post I did not mention Tamil Nadu, another powder keg of extremism, xenophobia, caste discrimination, and terrorist insurgency just waiting to blow up in India’s face. Let’s see what happens there shall we? And the worst part is that all of the business elite that dominates India are in thrall to some foreign woman, just because she has the name Gandhi through marriage. What a shame.
The direct singling out of my comment, while ignoring the vitriol of the other poster clearly shows your bias and, as I wrote earlier, your wishful thinking about the future of India and China. This shows the paucity of your argument, the crassness of the Writer and his cabal of commentors, and shows me that this is not a forum worth participating in. Pathetic.
March 18th, 2010 at 3:00 am
@MahamahaRaja,
As for the personal attack, I lost my cool a bit, apologize for that.
“In my earlier post I did not mention Tamil Nadu, another powder keg of extremism, xenophobia, caste discrimination, and terrorist insurgency just waiting to blow up in India’s face.”
LOL. I’m a proud resident of Tamil Nadu and I can assure you thats not the case. Where did u read it btw ? Tell any Tamil that he is not Indian and you’ll see the response. TN is one of the prosperous states of India. Chennai is a center of innovation with top schools like IIT. Chennai along with Bengaluru & Hyderabad are the biggest IT destinations. TN & Kerala are probably the only states which have true, uninfluenced Indian culture. They were not conquered by the Islamic invasions & hence have much of the culture preserved intact for the past 3000 years. TN has some of the most beautiful temples in the WORLD. TN has 3 UNESCO world heritage sites. Some of them were shown in Michael Wood’s “The story of India” PBS/BBC documentary. I welcome you to TN !
Here’s a small clip I was able to find. Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfoSbAhnRE8
I didn’t dissect your last comment, but if you were seriously looking for an answer, here it is.
“There are so many internal conflicts: Telengana, Gurhkaland, Naxalites, Maoists, Kashmir and that Pradesh near China.”
Telengana, Gurkhaland are internal rearrangments. The present 28 linguistic states & 7 union territories came from about 570 princely states. Naturally there are some demands for carving up of new states, that doesn’t mean separation. US has a quarter of India’s population, but has twice as much states.
Naxalites and Maoists are communist revolutionaries. They have managed to exploit remote tribals and are extorting tax. They dont enjoy any popular support at the rural/urban centres. They are presently perceived as “law and order” problem, not “civil war”. If the latter perception takes place, the Indian armed forces will take care of it. I dont think in this age of satellite communications and remote drones, an army raised in the forests could overthrow the state. Right now, only the under equipped state police are handling it. If India does fall to any form of dictatorship, it should be more of a concern to our neighbours. A military govt would not be very kind when it comes to dealing with terrorism or border issues. Only an idiot neighbour would want India, a nuclear & modern power, to fall to dictatorship.
The so-called Kashmir “problem” is only exacerbated by the inflow of terrorists. Kashmir still has free press and democracy with 76% voter turn out as mentioned earlier. Forget democracy, China doesnt even have free press. You might recollect that its the lack of free information flow led to the Great Leap disaster.
Arunachal Pradesh & sabre rattling with Pakistan are external affairs problems.
“Then there’s the Muslim/Hindu problems…There’s the Sikh/Hindu/Christian problem too. ”
Its very very minuscule. There were some riots here and there, but it hardly amounts to civil war. Try to express it as %age and you will see how tiny & insignificant it is. In India, no ethnic/religious/linguistic group dominates another, unlike Han in China.
“There’s the home-grown terrorists and the Afghan ones.”
Home grown what ? Its true that ISI has penetrated & carry out their activities.
“Not to mention the hundreds of millions of disenfranchised “Untouchables” who are being down-trodden with heavier boots, with no hope of improving their lives.”
Do you know how many affirmative action programs India has implemented for the SC/STs (lower castes) ? “no hope of improving their lives” ? Heard of Mayawati ? India’s caste problems are often overplayed and its not even a big deal compared to the class clashes in other parts of the world. India never had genocide and slavery for the past 5000 years. Caste doesn’t amount to slavery. Caste system protected India’s culture and identity. Caste-less Buddhism died, but caste-full Hinduism survived, see ? Its a huge topic, but lets leave it at there. When CPC took over in China, 5 Million landlords were killed and several million were forced to work in “re-education camps”. India never had such kind of problems.
March 18th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
@MahamahaRaja, I think your comments are enough now thank you.
March 18th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
be careful china is a dangerous player
March 19th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Well I don’t know about that Samuel, however one aspect is its growth rate is levelling out while India’s is rising. For MNC’s its not a question of one or the other. The corporate strategy has to be both. As a minimum it hedges one against the other and at a maximum both should be productive. Win-win as far as I can see. Thanks Chris
March 20th, 2010 at 11:16 pm
@MahamahaRaja
India’s greatest contribution to world science was the zero. Nothing more.
Proof No 1
You gotta be kidding really !!!
Have you read the book The Crest of the Peacock: Non-European Roots of Mathematics (Penguin Mathematics) (Paperback)
~ George Gheverghese Joseph (Author)
Proof No 2
We often think of Egyptians and Babylonians as being the height of civilisation and of mathematical skills around the period of the Indus civilisation, yet V G Childe in New Light on the Most Ancient East (1952) wrote:-
India confronts Egypt and Babylonia by the 3rd millennium with a thoroughly individual and independent civilisation of her own, technically the peer of the rest. And plainly it is deeply rooted in Indian soil. The Indus civilisation represents a very perfect adjustment of human life to a specific environment. And it has endured; it is already specifically Indian and forms the basis of modern Indian culture.
Source http://www-gap.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/HistTopics/Indian_mathematics.html
Proof No 3
Indians predated Newton ‘discovery’ by 250 years
Dr George Gheverghese Joseph from The University of Manchester says the ‘Kerala School’ identified the ‘infinite series’- one of the basic components of calculus – in about 1350.
The discovery is currently – and wrongly – attributed in books to Sir Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibnitz at the end of the seventeenth centuries.
The team from the Universities of Manchester and Exeter reveal the Kerala School also discovered what amounted to the Pi series and used it to calculate Pi correct to 9, 10 and later 17 decimal places.
And there is strong circumstantial evidence that the Indians passed on their discoveries to mathematically knowledgeable Jesuit missionaries who visited India during the fifteenth century.
That knowledge, they argue, may have eventually been passed on to Newton himself.
Source http://www.physorg.com/news106238636.html
March 22nd, 2010 at 1:16 pm
@Monte Cristo – all fascinating stuff, but what has it got to do with the future direction of both countries? Here’s an interesting observation concerning government makeup: The Chinese Governments top officials are nearly all engineers. The Indian Governments top officials are nearly all economists and lawyers. I think that says something about the reform process happening in India at the present and the infrastructure process that China has been going through. Thanks – Chris
March 22nd, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Engineering is derived from hard sciences and while one aspect of their job is the responsibility for making work an architect’s vision, the other more mundane part of their job is to make sure that infrastructure is up to scratch. I like clean water being supplied and my drains working, my electricity not browning out, etc.
You can have 3 economists all with big egos in a room and you will get 4 opinions on any one topic. Lastly there are a lot of lawyers who become politicians such as in the USA. Sort of like the fox guarding the hen-house. Politicians are normally subjected to lobbying (bribes) but the more savy ones can also get obscure legislation passed with loop-holes and “pork” that they say they are experts on when they leave politics for lucrative private work.
March 22nd, 2010 at 2:18 pm
@Observer – Politicians always have egos. However I’ve met most of the senior Indian Ministers and they’re there for a good reason: the Lawyers for reform and amendments to many areas of backwardness in Indian law, such as Land Use, and the economists to steer India in the right direction. I’d say they’re doing a pretty good job.
March 22nd, 2010 at 3:47 pm
@chris
The above comment was meant for @ mahamahaRaja.
I know it has nothing to do with future direction of both countries.- Monte
March 24th, 2010 at 2:08 am
@Monte Christo,
Thanks for those details. Infact, India has made lot more contributions in the field of science and maths. However, India’s crown jewel contribution is in the field of psychology & meta physics. Only Indian system has profound insight into the “software” (consciousness, mind, emotions, Intelligence etc.) aspect of the universe. Western/modern science mainly deals with the “hardware” (atoms,forces,energy etc.) aspect. His Holiness the Dalai Lama says that Nagarjuna (Indian philosopher, ~200BC) had verses on quantum physics. There are some researches taking place trying to harmonize ancient Indian thought & modern science. That is a welcome move. It must also be recollected that Swami Vivekananda met Nikola Tesla. In His own words “Mr. Tesla was charmed to hear about the Vedantic Prâna and Âkâsha and the Kalpas, which according to him are the only theories modern science can entertain.”
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Complete_Works_of_Swami_Vivekananda/Volume_5/Epistles_-_First_Series/LVII_Blessed_and_Beloved
http://www.teslasociety.com/tesla_and_swami.htm
As for the “future”, ofcourse it doesnt have any direct bearing on the economy, but as a HUMAN RACE, this is very significant. Harmonization of Indian thought and modern science will harmonize science & religion – the desperately needed balance in the world for the present times (esp in regions dominated by Abrahamic religions). Curiously enough, Swami Vivekananda advocated religious harmony on Sep 11, 1893. Exactly 108 years later (and 108 has some significance in Hinduism), 9/11 happened because the humans failed to heed His warning ! Science & religion harmony is not new to India – ancient Indian philosophers were very scientific in their approach. Even today, many rocket scientists in India are deeply religious -or rather spiritual (like Dr. Abdul Kalam).
March 24th, 2010 at 2:17 am
Here’s the link for the speech Swami Vivekananda gave at the “Parliament of World Religions” on 9/11/1893.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Complete_Works_of_Swami_Vivekananda/Volume_1/Addresses_at_The_Parliament_of_Religions/Response_to_Welcome
“Sectarianism, bigotry, and its horrible descendant, fanaticism, have long possessed this beautiful earth. They have filled the earth with violence, drenched it often and often with human blood, destroyed civilisation and sent whole nations to despair. Had it not been for these horrible demons, human society would be far more advanced than it is now. But their time’s come; and I fervently hope that the bell that tolled this morning in honour of this convention may be the death-knell of all fanaticism, of all persecutions with the sword or with the pen, and of all uncharitable feelings between persons wending their way to the same goal.”
(how relevant it is today !!!)
March 24th, 2010 at 2:37 am
@Chris,
“The Chinese Governments top officials are nearly all engineers. The Indian Governments top officials are nearly all economists and lawyers.”
Thats an interesting observation. Do you have more details ? Choice of engineers to manage the country is in fact very bad. Engineers usually lack the skills to analyze the economical/social impact of their decisions. Engineers may love to construct super cool freeways, but what about the economic & social cost (relocating people etc.) ? No wonder we hear news reports of people protesting to save their houses and the possible bubble about over-investment.
March 24th, 2010 at 9:16 am
@Ananda,
Read the following article about the difficulties in getting the old Enron Dabhol plant up and running in Maharashtra, India. In that time China probably has set up hundreds of working power plants.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/23/business/global/23enron.html
March 24th, 2010 at 11:49 am
And another example where politics gets in the way of development, India is now restricting the number of Chinese workers that can work on Indian infrastructure projects. See:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/99a99732-36e5-11df-bc0f-00144feabdc0.html
A bit like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Every day’s delay in getting a power plant up and running is a blow to productivity and profitability for a country.
But hey! I guess it makes some Indians feel good that the Chinese can’t finish Indian power plants on time.
March 25th, 2010 at 3:25 am
Observer,
There is a difference between how the Americans perceive China & Indians perceive China. Americans are looking to invest, we are looking for lessons. From what I have seen, we have only more lessons to avoid from China.
Ofcourse India moves in a sluggish pace. But India certainly never paid the high human/social/political costs China did (like GLF/Cultural Revolution or the present day 90,000 demonstrations per year). I’m not particularly attached to democracy or communism. Neither were invented in Asia. I, like any other patriot in any part of the world, want only the best for my country. Given a choice, I’d always pick India’s present political setup over China’s.
When you build 100 freeways, Americans get impressed at the raw power displayed by the state and would want to invest there. When we look at those 100 freeways, our thinking process goes like “Why do we need 100 freeways ? Is it economically profitable ? What are the social costs ? How many people need to be relocated ? What is the damage to the environment ? What are the political implications ? etc”. America at best has a gambler’s perspective over China. Ofcourse you need to put up a nice face & impress them. As far as we are concerned, we dont fall for the nice face, we will look deeper because its a matter of life & death, not just a gamble.
China has glittering beautiful cities & India will not have a Shanghai, not in another 30 years. Ambani will have to suck it up – his billion dollar 60 floors house will have to live next to a $100 shack. In India, those in top can never snap their fingers and make the not-so-nice-to-look-at brushed under the carpet, the way it is in China. India has tried very hard for “city beautification” but never really succeeded. Its impossible to eliminate slums. But slums are genuine enablers of upward social mobility. I personally know some success stories. The first generation rural poor migrate to slums & do blue-collar work. The second generation will get an education & find a middle class job & decent housing in the city. The third generation will definitely get better education & fit into the upper middle class demographic.
So China’s development is top-down, government driven. India’s is grass-roots, people driven. That brings us to the title of this article – the proverbial hare and tortoise !
March 25th, 2010 at 5:24 am
@Ananda – thanks for those useful insights. Concerning the top politicians, check the respective Government websites to view cv’s of each of the pertinent individuals,
@Observer – the current situation is partly China fault and partly a breakdown in communications between India’s tax bureau and immigration. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers have been engaged on BOT contracts and not paying tax in India on their earnings. The black migrant Chinese labor force we discussed here: http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/09/03/are-china%e2%80%99s-cheap-traders-outstaying-their-welcome-2088.html and here: http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2009/10/16/india-stops-business-visas-for-chinese-nationals-2601.html it’s old news actually and I understand the diplomats are working on it, but yes, it’s a problem.
Thanks – Chris
March 25th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
@ Ananda
Quote
”The first generation rural poor migrate to slums & do blue-collar work. The second generation will get an education & find a middle class job & decent housing in the city. The third generation will definitely get better education & fit into the upper middle class demographic.”
Absolutely true, What I have observed in states with Immigrants from Mexico, Only exception they did not move in slums. But did most of the Blue collars Jobs and the second generation learns English and does better compared to First generation immigrants and move upwardly.- Monte
March 26th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
That NYT article about Enron is spot-on. Our problem is not one of insufficient power plants or highways, it’s cronyism, corruption and weak economic policies.
As for China’s development being top-down, government driven, vs. India’s grass-roots, people driven? Puh-leeze! Government in omnipresent in India. Look at the Commonwealth Games preparation in Delhi. It’s all about what the government wants. All those blocked roads, Metro cranes crashing down, open manholes… that’s what people want??
No, development in India is all about lining people’s pockets. When an Indian sees 100 super highways in China, what he’s thinking is, how much could I get for awarding a tender to build this in India??
March 27th, 2010 at 7:00 am
@AIR,
Corruption exists in India, agreed. So does China. India has made an effort with that “right to information act” (or something similar, dont remember the name). India doesn’t have police brutality and media censorship. You must appreciate that. Are you complaining that 100 million of our people are not dead because of some crappy decisions in the top ?
“it’s cronyism, corruption and weak economic policies. ”
cronysim & corruption, true. “weak” policy ? How so ? India has managed to show high rates of growth, only slightly lesser than China, but pretty consistent. True that inefficiency is built into the system because of democracy. But look at your alternate option and tell me what is better for us ? “Communism with Indian characteristics” ?
“Government in omnipresent in India…It’s all about what the government wants. ”
I’m not sure what govt, or even what aspect of the Indian setup you are talking about. Remember the spectacular failure of BJP’s “Shining India” campaign, where the top few’s pockets were filled up, while conveniently ignoring farmer suicides ?
March 29th, 2010 at 10:01 am
I’ve noticed a marked difference in the general way Chinese and Indian Government officials deal with the public. There are exceptions of course, however Chinese officials are far more aloof and will not engage without prior vetting of any questions and will place some subjects out of bounds. They tend to view themselves as ‘above’ the people they are supposed to be serving. Indian officials are far more tolerant of public opinion, and do not (usually) have the luxury of being able to dictate what subjects they may or may not be questioned on. The difference of course is the democratic process, Indian officials are elected and have to keep their contituents happy, and are answerable to them. In China, of course the Party knows best what is good for the people. It’s top down in China, in India it’s bottom up.
April 10th, 2010 at 7:21 am
China is leaving India in the dust and will continue to do so. China seems to have competent smart leaders who know how to get things done. Ever been to China? Their cities are so clean and orderly. Indian cities are a disgrace. Trash and slums everywhere. Horrendous traffic. People with no civic sense. Lack of green spaces. Rampant corruption amongst city authorities. I’m not saying China is without any problems but being a communist country they are able to do to the difficult unpopular things needed to make their country progress. And why do you think just because India has more population growth that is going to help it? Just the opposite – India’s runaway population growth is what will hold it back in the end. Already there are bad water and electricity shortages. Food price inflation is thru the roof. Traffic and pollution in cities is huge. Environmental pollution is everywhere. There are very few truly green wilderness places left in India that haven’t been overrun by touristy businesses, tree cutting or Maoist insurgents. China on the other hand is developing its national parks. Its establishing one of the biggest national parks in the Uighur region – Kanas National Park. China is way ahead of India in scientific research too. But what can you expect of a country like India when its leaders (Congress party) are terrorist sympathizers.
April 12th, 2010 at 9:41 am
Well “Rational Indian”. Much of what you have to say is to do with infrastructure development. However, India can, will and is solving this, and a lot of your observations seem standard generalisations. “Trash & Slums” aren’t everywhere. The traffic congestion problems are about the same as they are in China’s main cities. As for scientific research, well the ultimate measure – the Nobel prizes – show them equal, and there is no doubt India’s IT industry is way ahead. However I do feel your comments about the Congress Party are misplaced. They are not ‘terrorist sympathizers’ and I don’t think that’s a populist global view either. But, as you say, in some ways, China is ahead. But in others, India is. As I mention in the title of the piece, China is more ahead at the moment. But, the interesting part in my view is that India is starting – starting – to close the gap. It has a long way to go and a lot to do – but I feel that is what is happening. Time will tell. But I for one am committed – to both, which seems the sensible option. Thanks for your comments – Chris
April 15th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
@”Rational Indian”,
Environment is an interesting point. Here’s a nice activity you can do. Using Google Earth, zoom onto any water body in China. You can see traces of industrial waste leaking into it.
http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2008/01/slideshow-chinese-pollution-discharge-as-shown-on-google-earth/
http://chinadigitaltimes.net/china/water-pollution/
Unfortunately for China, clamping down on pollution would directly affect the export industry. Any measure taken to control pollution will directly affect the pricing of goods. Since China is heavily dependent on cheap exports, pollution control is a big no-go zone. As long as China takes pride in being “factory of the world”, no luck. China must seriously amend its way in Tibet also. According to His Holiness, the Tibetan river system will dry up in 2-3 decades at the present trajectory.
On the contrary, pollution in India is not strongly tied to the economy. India’s pollution is mainly because of poor infrastructural planning and the lack of strict anti-pollution rules. Indian politicians are so fond of receiving foreign aid. Many projects are being undertaken with loan from world bank. The grandest of them, if I’m not mistaken, is the Ganges river cleanup for $20bn. This inflow of money creates many jobs, increases consumption and whatnot.
So pollution control has a negative effect on the economy for China and positive for India.
April 15th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
E-waste in China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgKMluvzEN4&feature=player_embedded
April 15th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Someone in an earlier post wrote that we in China or a narrower segment of the population have a hatred towards India. This is simply untrue. India doesn’t appear much in the media or people’s minds. In China, we simply have no basis for hating India.
I do get the impression that a few people here who have made comments don’t like China.
April 15th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
@Jin, we try and keep discussions civil, and mostly they are here, however a small minority of readers on both sides can get a bit aggressive on occasion. The worst offenders get banned. The 2.6 title itself refers to the combined populations of China and India, and we feel that both countries are equally fascinating when it comes to their on-going development. Its not a “one or the other” scenario, its both that are important. If 2.6 can help break down any barriers that exist in peoples minds, then thats part of what we’re aiming to achieve. Thanks – Chris
April 16th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
@Jin: Is your estimation of anti-India Chinese, vs. the number of anti-China Indians, only based on English forums? If so, most Chinese participate only in Chinese forums, don’t they? After all, the number of English speakers in China will never exceed 10 million, according to this article.
So the real measure is the anti-India membership of Chinese forums, not English ones. Isn’t it?
April 25th, 2010 at 6:20 am
@AIR
I’m a Chinese and I agree with Jin. On Chinese forums, India rarely if ever gets brought up. And as a result, there is really not much anger or love towards the country. It’s issues with countries like the USA, Korea (of which Chinese netizens have a latest problem against this couple of years if you read the forums) and Japan that gets mentioned. But not India. Sorry, this isn’t to spite anybody. But I really don’t think we compare with Indians as much as do with us.
And lastly, I think all these comparing is childish and pointless. At the end of the day, so what if India is more successful or China is more successful. Does it really matter? I think what really matters is that the citizens are the one’s benefiting and it’s really a win-win situation for both countries anyway.
April 27th, 2010 at 11:44 am
@AIR thanks for your comments. I’m not big on the “whose better than who” mentality myself and I agree 100% “win-win” is the deal. However comparing the two in growth is interesting as we have two very different approaches to developing a nation, and it’s interesting to compare the challenges, mistakes and solutions that China and India both make in this regard. Lifting hundreds of millions of people our of poverty (as both are doing) is a job beyond even that of the US. – Chris
April 28th, 2010 at 2:09 am
I feel badly that many Indians think Chinese don’t like India. I am Chinese. I agree with the other Chinese posters that India is not a strong presence in the minds of many Chinese. Most Chinese live in Eastern China, and India is a very distant, exotic place. Countries like Japan or Korea are more in the public consciousness. My wife only knew about India from her favorite Bollywood movies so she had a very positive impression!
April 28th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
The two countries were very close in the 1950’s, linked by their relations with the Soviet Union during the period. I am told that b/w Bollywood films were a regular on Chinese TV at the time.
April 28th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Chris and hn, I feel bad about it too. As long as most Indians feel only morbid hatred towards even ordinary Chinese people, relations between the two countries will never improve. And you have only confirmed what I’ve always felt – that the hatred is one-sided. We are all too ready to project our own fear and loathing of the Chinese onto the “other” as well. We as a country have really got to wake up and face the reality.
Manmohan Singh called the border issue “complex.” I guess what he really meant was that WE aren’t allowing him to complete the negotiations in good faith, because any agreement would be unacceptable to us as “a betrayal” and “giving in” to China.
April 29th, 2010 at 10:38 am
@AIR – certainly the India media is often rabid in its approach and screams headlines meant to provoke and outrage. Problem is that mentality gets into the mainstream and makes people too excited. Some sense then for China’s censorship model? – Chris
May 7th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
@asok- I hope that MAN MADE structure is not STATUE OF MAYAVATI!
and if at all there’s something really like that in India; which is visible from Moon,
i suppose it’s INVISIBLE in India!!!!!
May 8th, 2010 at 4:57 am
I think the author is trying to find an answer as to how India would develop in comparison with his experiences in China. However using some stats to prove a point is utterly useless in this sense.
If one does it makes sense to use proper data and that in itself is already almost impossible and would take so much time considering the list stats he used. I recommend the World Development Reports and it makes very much sense to read a couple of them as the World Bank will focus on different development issues per report. Water resources being one of them. China has far greater resources as the article makes us believe the stats used are just surface water areas and are pretty much meaningless. Less arable land has little meaning if one does not take average yields of the most important staple foods into consideration.
I read the discussion above, the nationalist ramblings aside, in which the author tried to explain his use of statistics and comparisons. It is an exercise in futility without a proper education in Development Economics, Sociology and Geography to write such an essay on the basis of dubious stats and anecdotal evidence. Especially the “on the ground experience part” is something that bothers me. What are his people doing on the ground then? Interviewing 100,000’s of thousands Indians and Chinese? Studying the growth of cities? Checking irrigation schemes and sampling stats on harvests? No they go to work and shop, read the paper, browse the web, watch tv, see a Bollywood movie, meet a couple of clients and get stuck in traffic. That is a microscopic view of what is going on and does not justify drawing conclusions about the macro economy let alone starting a who is doing better contest.
Nobody knows how both China or India will exactly develop in the long run. They both will grow, that is easy to predict and both will see recessions, wrestle with unrest, have droughts, or floods, earthquakes, pollution, deal with global recessions etc.
Will it be 10% a year, 8% a year, 6%? We do not know as there are too many factors at work here. Will a housing bubble burst in China and/or India? Sure at some point this will always happen. Will the countries survive such a shock? Of course they do as countries can only go bankrupt on paper unless, like in Zimbabwe, the policy makers simply plunder all resources. Neither India nor China has policy makers whose prime objective is to enrich themselves at all cost. Some might but not all. Those who implement policies might but we are not talking banana republics here. We are talking two large diversified economies. Indian policy makers greatest weakness is its slow and politicized decision process which might be possible in highly developed economies but is a hindrance to growth for a poor developing nation.
What we do know are a couple of simple facts and the author should have looked at them a bit closer. A higher birthrate which the author sees as a good thing to avoid an aging population which China will have to deal with is indeed great. However we should not underestimate the burden this will bring to India as well if the country fails to properly feed and educate these new Indians. If they are born without provisions for their own future having been made then the country won’t have one.
Urbanization is a sure sign of modern development and in that sense China has channeled it’s efforts into modern city development whereas India seems much more struggling to keep up. Gurgaon which is supposed to be the great new India still has generators on every compound which means as much that the government has failed in providing the motor for urban development: sufficient power generation. Those poor folks that have purchased overpriced properties there are looking at a very uncertain future as the government continues to fail in it’s urban planning strategies.
For development purposes heralding democracy as the magic potion is more wishful thinking than anything else. Education for all, the building of a system where merit is the prime goal in order to improve your life. Such a system creates well educated policy makers. Policy makers that are business friendly and still keep their eye on the general well being of the population. Add to this a banking system that can allocate the financial resources, be it from abroad or financed from savings, to build and sustain the infrastructure required and you are poised for growth.
However we look at it. India and China are still developing nations with huge income disparities, lack of high quality education and lack of infrastructure development. China in my opinion has the advantage that it can plan for the long term whereas India has an economic planning that might change from election to election. This difference is clearly visible in China’s long term urbanization drive. Albeit flawed it still has proven quite successful whereas India’s policies are regional and vary widely. Maybe that is a good thing? Maybe regional tuned policies are slower but end up in the longer run being more effective? Who knows?
Is there a clear winner? Should there be one? An essay that is dealing with so many development indicators can not provide the answers to that if such an answer is actually needed in the first place. I would suggest looking at one or two indicators at a time and only draw conclusions with proper references to in-depth studies. Then have your audience do the rest of the discussions.
May 10th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
Thank you Gordon for your observations and comments. It is futile to try and explain or predict the development differences between the two countries, as no-one has a crystal ball. Additionally, the research can always be disputed in any field. However, the piece has had close to 80 comments to date which would indicate some validity in examining and discussing the questions to try to make sense of them – and the answers. As to what will really happen – we’ll just have to wait and see. But merely stating that is both just very obvious and also not very interesting. We have to try and stimulate thoughts on the subject and that at least, has been achieved. – Thanks Chris
May 17th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
@Chris,
“The two countries were very close in the 1950’s, linked by their relations with the Soviet Union during the period.”
No sir, thats a misunderstanding. Nehru wanted to create a “third world axis”, which was neither aligned to the Soviet nor the US. He initiated the “panch sheel” (5 principles for co-existence) with China. China was percieved as a natural ally because of the 2000 yr old cultural relationship. The relationship soured because of the Tibet issue. Nehru, by the Indian tradition of never denying a refugee, did the right thing of providing shelter to His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the 80,000 Tibetan refugees. IMO, it shows his exemplary principle-driven statesmanship. He could have easily said no to HHDL and pursued his decades old geo-strategic vision. Soviet Union comes much later into picture – after ‘62 war initiated by China and the ganging up of Pakistan, US & China against India in ‘71. Indira Gandhi signed a 20 year old friendship treaty with USSR right before the war to ensure that US/PRC didn’t get involved.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:06 am
From the Hindustan Times a report on a survey of Chinese and Indians perceptions of each other:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/HTHorizons/world/Chinese-think-India-backward/SP-Article1-544262.aspx
May 18th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
Well, we got a problem here.Most Asians do not consider India as a Strong contender in the New Economic Global world order.Worse most Asians still think India as a backward and poor country with lot of slums next only to sub- Sharan Africa. Most of the damage has been done by western Missionaries who came India during the early years and Indians selling the poverty image during 80’s. I know couple of Indian Missionaries who got rich by selling Indian poverty porn to west and most of the funds diverted to Indian Real estate in Bangalore late 80’s. Think of now Bangalore 2010 and the prices of real estate sky rocked post IT.
May 29th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
1. the number of people from CHINA who post in english is pretty much NIL. so people who post as chinese here usually are living abroad and NOT in China. China has the most website domains in the world – IN CHINESE. they don’t need to go out and almost no one speaks english in china – even in international airports believe it or not.
but then again, this never hindered the japanese.
2. india is so far behind china in terms of education, infrastructure, poverty elimination, etc, it’s not even close. just visit china’s clean, modern cities and compare them to the third world nature of indian cities.
No one in china cares about india, but it seems everyone in india cares about china
classic insecurity complex.
June 9th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Hi John; Actually about 35% of our readers on this site are mainland Chinese. In our own firm in China (about 250 Chinese staff) all are bilingual and speak English. While the total percentage of mainland Chinese who can speak reasonable English is small, the majority of professional staff can and do, and they also make up a number of highly successful English language websites and blogs also. Concerning the India perception, much is made by the media, which is censored in China, so the perceptions from the China end are skewed by politics, whereas in India the media is skewed by sensationalism. I’m not always sure which is worse. – Thanks Chris
June 9th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
@John
I consider India as a Black swan,that can surprise the world.Just rewind India’s story back in 90’s you will get the picture where this country is heading.
June 11th, 2010 at 3:58 am
John, it makes me wonder why you think thinking about other country is a bad thing. And especially China which is overtaking world one can always praise its effort and if it fails surely there will be lessons for India.
Also, India is following UK model (political, media, common law etc.) rather than bland US model. Which means, Indians are more likely to have opinion than rather inward looking (compared to British) Americans. Infact Chris, British media is quite sensational. Times of London regularly has screaming headlines.
June 11th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Thanks John, yes the London Times has certainly changed its approach. I’m not a big fan of tabloids, nor of newspapers being owned by individuals to promote their political agenda. Rupert Murdoch has destroyed a lot of what used to be quality jouranlism, and the result also infects many blogs.
July 10th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
oh my god.is it really true that India will be able to overcome china in future!I’m a Indian but it’s hard to believe.Chinese knows themselves that they are “VAST MUSCLE GROUP” and they would not easily let India to overtake them.you know India was world’s richest and most civilized country in it’s past(10,000 years of civilization),but with the arrival of European and Arabian invendors it started becoming poor and today India is world’s one of highest poverty containing country.it’s own democracy is pulling it back.though our land is now starting moving to the top of the world but this process is very slow.
i know elephant is real and long distance runner,but dragon is just awesome!!!
regards,
shuryansh.
July 13th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
China’s leaders are now predicting a slow down just at the time I suspect Indian growth is going to consistantly hit 10% over the next decade. India will start to catch up, however in certain sectors the pace of development will be different. – Chris