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U.S., China, and India to be Three Most Powerful Countries in 2025: Report

By Christian Fleming

Sept 23 – In a report titled “Global Governance 2025,” experts from the U.S. National Intelligence Council and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies project that by 2025 the United States will maintain its lead in the world power structure, but will have lost considerable ground to the next two countries on the list – emerging Asian forces China and India.

The 82-page report highlights several current and growing global threats, including climate change, economic issues, terrorism, competition for resources, and infectious diseases.

In judging the outcomes of these collective issues, the report outlines several potential scenarios that could take place by 2025, suggesting that the most likely structure in global governance will be “barely keeping afloat,” in which ad hoc institutions and solutions will be applied as new issues arise.

Experts also weigh in on rising powers China and India, defining their world views, as well as looking at their respective economic, political, and social environments. The two emerging Asian economies are sure to wield a significant amount of influence in the coming years, although the report warns that such clout will not necessarily facilitate global governance.

In particular, it is hard to determine if China, a country focused on domestic development, will take on more global responsibility as its economy continues to grow at a rapid pace. With its global governance shares wavering around 13 percent, and expected to hit 16 percent by 2025, China’s rising position indicates that its role in global governance will be crucial.

The report also brings to light certain hindrances to China’s collaboration in global governance, such as the lack of political will and the competition for resources, which has become evident in the recent China-Japan dispute over a gas-rich patch of islands in the East China Sea.

India, currently holding roughly 8 percent of global governance shares and forecasted to increase its shares to 10 percent by 2025, seeks reassurances for stability and equilibrium in the region, and pushes for better-equipped global governance institutions.

Quoting Indian experts, the report opines that India, unlike China, would prefer that the West maintain its dominance in the Asia region. As the world’s second-most populous country (after China), with approximately 1.18 billion people, India fears that conflict resulting from competition for scarce resources and diminishing Western power in the region could spark conflict and obstruct solutions to global issues.

“Global Governance 2025” provides no such reassurances. The report concludes that while fragmentation of global governance institutions is not the most likely scenario, issues arising from a dearth of political will, conflicting worldviews, lack of institutional resources, and other hindrances will provide rough challenges for building up cooperation in global governance.

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30 Responses to U.S., China, and India to be Three Most Powerful Countries in 2025: Report

  1. Tony says:

    In 2025, US #1? yes. China #2? Maybe. India #3? Any of you ever visited India?

  2. Chris Devonshire-Ellis says:

    Frequently Tony. In fact we maintain five offices there, I’m in Mumbai right now and we just published our Guide To Doing Business In India (available here: http://www.asiabriefingmedia.com/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=98_73_78&products_id=373) and you’re also welcome to check out our daily India business news here: http://www.india-briefing.com/news

    The report was by the US National Intelligence Council – not exactly people who don’t know what’s going on. Sure India has its problems but I can assure you its growing faster than China right now. – Thanks – Chris

  3. Ben Gee says:

    India will have to grow by 9.8% per year for the next 15 years to reach the same level of output as Japan today. Does the world have enough resources for both India and China to grow at such rates?

  4. Ben Gee says:

    The US can stimulate its economy without increasing its budget deficit. How? Even if the US cut its military budget by 50%, its military spending would still be anout $ 350 billion, that is still 2-5 times what China spend on its military, depending on whose estimate we use. An additional $350 billion in investment every year will do wonders to the US economy. Where to invest? Start with high speed rail. If the US do not want to invest, how about use the money to subsidize US exports. If China got rich subsidizing exports, why not the US? Remenber, the US is already doing that for farm products, so why not other things?

  5. Chris Devonshire-Ellis says:

    India is growing at about 10% per annum at present, and it seems likely to maintain that. – Chris

  6. The_Observer says:

    Some good news that the Japanese are now going to release that Chinese captain of the fishing boat. Guess they need those rare earths more than making a point about some barren islands.
    China can have good relations with the West even as a rising power. China pays for the goods that she imports and Australia is a very good example of this. Australia is a very big trading partner with China these days and that contributed to Australia avoiding the global financial crisis. In addition, the Australians and the Chinese each just had some of their naval ships visit the other country’s ports. By all accounts the reciprocal visits were a success. Currently, the two navies are having joint drills off the Yellow Sea. The Australians have a more objective view of global matters and her navy spokesman said that the China-USA disagreements have nothing to do with Australia. The Australians also realize that the Americans trying to put a coalition behind-the-scenes against China is not going to work and will probably make things worse than they need be.

  7. The_Observer says:

    Simultaneously with the joint Australian-Chinese navy drills off the Yellow Sea, China is also carrying out an anti-terrorism drill with other members of the SCO in Kazakhstan thus simulating a two-front conflict. In addition, China is still helping Pakistan out with flood relief as well as building infrastructure in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. All that takes organization.

  8. kaussie says:

    the fact is that it has over 750 million ppl in the age group of 18-35 yrs and hence india is bound to become a superpower…

  9. Sam says:

    If India maintains 8% GDP growth for the next 10 years, it will overtake Japan in the next 10-12 years. Why??? because the Nominal GDP growth would grow by 13%, if real GDP growth is 8%.

    Based on their currency appreciation and inflation, their country can become the next economic giant by 2050.

    With 500 million population below 30 years. Their population will continue to grow till 2043 and then will start decline. By then half of the western nations and China will be aged.

    Being an Young and Democratic country like USA I would prefer to invest Long term in India than Short term authoritarian China.

  10. GAUTAM DHUDA says:

    India is poor country but 1 thing for sure
    they have 1.2 billion people
    and 4001 trillion U$D GDP(PPP)
    growth rate 9.8 [real]
    THEY ARE NOT SUPER POWER BUT
    THEY ARE STRONGER

  11. Country says:

    India is poor country but 1 thing for sure
    they have 1.2 billion people

  12. Baskar says:

    India is not a developing nation,its a developed nation says america.its true.but we peoples refuse to take this point.10 years back the infrastructures were poor.but now well improved.after 10 it will improve more.so india developing rapidly.now most of the peoples are getting proper food when compared to the previous years.so no doubt india will rule the world in 15 years

  13. Sreekant K says:

    India might or might not become a superpower. It doesn’t really matter. The need of the hour is to maintain peace and stability at all fronts and to ensure that the needs of the common man is met. Reports and graphs and big big predictions don’t make a nation developed. Grassroot problem solving capability is what is needed..

  14. Saiesh says:

    America’s economy is failing and stringent steps must be taken to overcome their economic problems! Relations with Russia must improve and must try to co operate and be allies! Since tension between USA And Russian Federation is still high it is necessary! Must try to find Allies in Asia(most probably India), Middle East, Africa and other parts of the world!

    2)China, with its economic growth will be an economic superpower unless some other country does something about it! China’s “military modernization” is very alarming and must be viewed from all angles! Deteriorating relations with India is also a great danger to World peace and stability!Sensitive issues like Human rights must be addressed aggressively! Though communist, respect must be given to Human lives when any signs of defiance or protest towards the government is shown! tolerance is highly required!!

    3)India is a very fast developing country with a growth rate of 8.2(current)! It would grow much faster if importance would be given to issues such as Corruption, Black market, Black money(400 Lakh Crores stashed abroad in the Swiss bank)! Military power is rising but not satisfactory yet! Poverty , Illiteracy and many other issues must be given undue attention so it India would not have the “third world” country status! Border issues with Pakistan and China must be settled peacefully instead of many people dying near the borders every single day! Must make a strategic partnership with the west and Russia!

  15. Ajith_Indian says:

    If any one thinks that India is a poor country.??plz change ur Mind .!! Coz ur absolute wrong.!! if Indians wont work in anypart of the world thn whole Industries, medical world ll shut down.Y al diz industries US own NASA wont able to work..B’coz 30% of nasa Engineers n scientist r INDIANS.!! India is largest country to produce doctors n engineers..U may check it in Wiki..I’m nt talk by India at my mind..rather its a knwn truth factor.
    India’s growth is almost hit 10%..Much more thn a developed countries..!!!!!!!!!

    I wish i share some Info about India, which make me feel proud..
    1) India is second largest country to talk & knw English..nt at china. :p
    2) Bombay(Mumbai) is the second largest Metropolis next to NY, Nt hongkong .!!
    3)Indian Army is second best armies in the world..
    4) Indian education is best in the world..Indian Software engineers got worldwide reputations..Nt Americans..US prez Obama only told about this.!!
    5) India is only country which never attack its neighbor frm past 2000 yrs..Since nw, nt even single country able to defete us.!!!

    .
    .
    .I wish i cud tel some more..For time being i able to produce only diz..Thnx for reading..
    Being Indian i hav to say
    ~NAMASTE ~DHANYAVAD…

  16. deepak sankholia says:

    i wish i share some Info about India,
    which make me feel proud..
    1) India is second largest country to
    talk & knw English..nt at china. :p
    2) Bombay(Mumbai) is the second
    largest Metropolis next to NY, Nt hongkong .!!
    3)Indian Army is second best armies
    in the world..
    4) Indian education is best in the
    world..Indian Software engineers got
    worldwide reputations..Nt Americans..US prez Obama only told
    about this.!!
    5) India is only country which never
    attack its neighbor frm past 2000
    yrs..Since nw, nt even single country
    able to defete us.!!!

  17. indian says:

    actually indian people were never poor,not mal nutritioned,man mohan singh has said that”There is no doubt that our grievances against the British Empire had a sound basis. As the painstaking statistical work of the Cambridge historian Angus Maddison has shown, India’s share of world income collapsed from 22.6% in 1700, almost equal to Europe’s share of 23.3% at that time, to as low as 3.8% in 1952. Indeed, at the beginning of the 20th century, “the brightest jewel in the British Crown” was the poorest country in the world in terms of per capita income.”

    — Manmohan Singh[3

  18. swati says:

    yes INDIA deserve this

  19. Amrit Pradhan says:

    I love to hear that India is rapidly growing, come on keep it up until you will reach on top of the world like mount everest of Nepal. I am a Nepalese, retired British Gurkha Soldier from the British Army and settled in the UK, and love India from its present economic power. May god bless India, I love my India…..!!

  20. s ranjith says:

    i am sure india is already super power now if we can iradicate corruption.love u india.

  21. Mayur says:

    We just need “change in political set up”and it will come for sure in near future may be in 1 or 2 decade and it will change the whole equation of the world….

  22. dhiraj ameta says:

    yes india is great and we have capacity to become main power of the world ……………..

  23. Nikunj Chugh says:

    India will have to clear its funamentals to become a great power along with china

  24. Pankaj Saraswat says:

    India can become World Power even beating china and can come to second place after USA but it can be possible when our as such called corrupt politicians should end from India and it can never happen.corrupt politicians can never end from India so I will say USA,China,Russia will always be ahead in military might than India.

  25. Guys – still a way to go to catch China, not least the dreadful infrastructure issues and vested interests in Government. The sooner Indians can elect a Government with a clear majority and allow them to get things done, instead of having a series of co-ilitions with a whole pile of horse-trading going on, the better. – Chris

  26. Pankaj negi says:

    Indian peoples r not living under poverty level due to lack of information u didn,t conclude its strength towards the terminal point,india is unable to touching superpower bcoz 60% indian politicians r corrupt and involved in many other corruption issues but according to Us nation survey till the end of 2025 india will be amongs of top 3 as well may be in top 2 due to this fact usa efforting to bringing india close with usa bcoz the growing power of china is affecting on america therefore usa is thinking to get accompany of india in a consecutive way to pressurising china through india bcoz both the country will being superpower in the world during upcoming years.

  27. Prof Dr. Deepak Tripathi says:

    Does it matter? I believe India having much potential becoming a superpower.In fact ,every country having that potential to their own if they utilize. Currently population is one of the big problem for India as well as its strength.India is getting too much pollution for these development.Furthermore no petroleum .It is true that there’s a large amount of young people in India but they are wasting their time with these controversial forums.And what about India’s science and technology?almost most of the things we import from Russia or United states.We need to sign agreement for the technology transfer. We are finishing our coal and minerals and many more energy crisis will be seen I hope for the next decades.Is there any good will from the side of Indian govt for finding a new source of renewable energy?How many air-planes are manufactured in India?What about the technology.Why Indian people need to go for better treatment to other countries while we have AIIMS? Why Indian students go to Europe for study or good students prefer USA after completing IIT?These are surely not the sign of being a superpower right now.Only depending upon manpower and trade or GDP a country can not be a superpower. It needs good health,medical science,military,science .Technology, Modern best cities,Best education than others.We need to improve more.It will take a century I feel.My humble request to young generation please don’t miss use your time for these forums rather if u want to see India superpower please shut up and do some real work .

  28. stalin says:

    Hi Chris,

    Very well researached report and i appreciate your analysis.As you rightly pointed out that India’s political leadership is to be strengthen much more time for better governance.
    ” The sooner Indians can elect a Government with a clear majority and allow them to get things done, instead of having a series of co-ilitions with a whole pile of horse-trading going on, the better. – Chris”

  29. Harriet Hammhocker says:

    No country where 50% of the population don’t even have a toilet to use can be considered developed , let alone even developing. While there is great wealth there is even greater poverty and an analysis of the percentile of each is more than much greater the world wide average. India is an extremely backward country with those in power and wealth determined not to share it. The majority of it’s large population live below the Indian Governments projected poverty level, which in itself is lower than appropriate. The disappointment here is to see even professors think that India is a world power. It is totally discouraging to see the amount being spent in India on arms and the military and then have a look at how much they are NOT spending on social welfare for the people of contribution to general infrastructure. Totally not capable but totally wanting to be seen as a super power. Absolutely a crappy and undemocratic country.

  30. Manoj kumar says:

    Indian always powerful but our poltical issue make its weak i think a strong goverment its makes worldpower again . Indian tallent worldwide every field and nobady can challange to india but our polticin make country lose

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