China is not the only solution for export-driven manufacturing, and Asia’s trade evolution is determining that business models move on for adventures elsewhere.
By Chris Devonshire-Ellis, Principal, Dezan Shira & Associates
Apr. 9 – At the turn of the 21st Century, there were two main schools of commercial thought with regards to China. The most popular was that China represented a massive market to sell to with roughly 1.3 billion potential consumers. The second was that China had a young, available and inexpensive work force that was relatively skilled and disciplined. While the latter has proven the dominant economic driver for the past two decades, China’s one-child policy (implemented nationwide in 1982) has meant that the nation’s supply of cheap labor has been drying up – and is now doing so at an increasingly rapid rate.
China today is one of the fastest aging populations in the world – a fact that has not gone unnoticed by the central government. Wary of inheriting a huge population of aged, but poor citizens, it has been state policy over the past few years to get more money into the pockets of Chinese nationals and to implement what by global standards is a relatively expensive, contribution-based state insurance scheme. Continue reading
By Alex Tangkilisan
Mar. 15 – In the fourth and final part of our ASEAN-India Free Trade Area analysis, we will examine trade trends and statistics from India to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia account for three of ASEAN’s six major economies known as the ASEAN six majors (the other three being Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam). Together, these three countries combine for a GDP of US$864.02 billion, a population of 101.6 million and exports to India amounting to US$23.5 billion (or, about 5 percent of India’s total imports). Continue reading
The establishment of a BRICS Development Bank will be among the prime topics of discussion at the BRICS Summit on March 26. Gateway House’s Akshay Mathur interviews former Indian Ambassador and Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran, on the prospects and viability of alternate financial architectures.
Mar. 15 – The next BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place in Durban on 26-27 March 2013. A proposal to create a BRICS development bank is being discussed at the Summit. Ambassador Shyam Saran speaks to Gateway House’s Akshay Mathur about the need for a BRICS development bank and why Western-dominated financial institutions and systems cannot be easily replaced in the near future.
Q: BRICS, as a concept, seems to have fallen out of flavor, especially among western scholars. Do you see any promise in the grouping?
If you’re expecting a major impact on the international economic or monetary order, it is too early for the group to act with the same coherence that, for example, the G7 has done for a long time. The G7 has carried a lot of heft in the global economy for the last fifty years. BRICS, in contrast, is not there yet.
Moreover, China is growing so fast that it is overshadowing Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. It has been adding one Indian economy each year to itself. It is difficult to work with coherence with such asymmetry between the members. Continue reading
By Alex Tangkilisan
Feb. 27 – In the third part of our ASEAN-India Free Trade Area analysis, we will examine trade trends and statistics from India to Cambodia, Brunei, Laos and the Philippines.
While the Philippines is part of the ASEAN six majors, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos are the three smallest economies in the region. Together, these four countries combine for a GDP of US$258.30 billion, a population of 115.85 million and exports to India amounting to US$1.33 billion (or, about 0.27 percent of India’s total imports). Continue reading
Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid’s February 5 visit to Chile and Argentina is emblematic of the new era in Indo-Latin America relations. What does this increased engagement mean for India and Chile, two rapidly growing economies of the Global South?
By Ambassador Jorge Heine
Feb. 21 – The on-going visit of Indian Foreign Minister Salman Kurshid to Chile and Argentina from February 5-8 is a welcome development. Though India is cutting a higher profile in world affairs, the visits of its various foreign ministers to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have been few and far between. This is the first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Chile. Such exchanges at the highest levels, be it between heads of government or senior Cabinet ministers, give bilateral relationships the much-needed momentum to move forward. This is especially true for India and Latin America, which have much to offer to each other, but where links between its political elites have been scarce.
There is no country in the world farther away from India than Chile. Yet, what we have seen over the past decade is proof that, though we may not be living at the end of history, we are at the end of geography as we know it.
Globalization has facilitated much of this change, and India and Chile have certainly made the most of it as part of the Global South. Continue reading
Feb. 14 – Recent figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration have revealed that China consumes almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Perhaps even more shocking, it has been estimated that India, who currently faces domestic shortages, could be importing as much coal as China by 2017. As the Asian giants continue to consume resources at an extraordinary rate to fund their development, it is increasingly clear that their consumption of coal may be a cause for concern.
In 2011, China’s coal consumption grew 9 percent, rising to a massive 3.8 billion tons. In the same period, the rest of the world combined was consuming 4.3 billion tons of coal. Analysts from Macquarie Bank now expect China to consume 3.9 billion tons in 2013.
Chinese coal imports, however, will fall by almost 10 percent in 2013 due to rising domestic supply, improved transport networks and weak power demand growth. According to a poll of 12 analysts, total imports are expected to stand at almost 210 million tons in 2013, compared to the 234.3 million tons of coal which was imported last year. Continue reading
Feb. 12 – This United States (U.S.) has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) that challenges India’s national solar program, claiming that it discriminates against foreign solar products. According to the U.S., India’s solar program, which was initially launched in 2010, requires producers to utilize Indian-manufactured solar cells and modules. This ‘forced localization’ has resulted from the subsidies the Indian government has offered for using domestically produced equipment instead of foreign imports.
“Let me be clear: the United States strongly supports the rapid deployment of solar energy around the world, including with India,” said U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk. “Unfortunately, India’s discriminatory policies in its national solar program detract from that successful cooperation, raise the cost of clean energy, and undermine progress toward our shared objective.” Continue reading
2point6billion.com provides news and analysis on foreign trade in south east Asia, with a particular focus on China and India. The stories are contributed by the foreign direct investment experts at Dezan Shira & Associates, who have offices throughout China, India and Vietnam.